Football writer Ben Bloom looks at the latest twists and turns in the Premier League title race and what awaits us after the international break.

What a difference a few weeks make. The last time the Premier League paused for the international break in mid-October, last season’s three-way title fight had already been repeated, with just one point separating the league leaders. Liverpool of city ​​of manchester and Arsenal.

But as players travel around the world to represent their countries once again, this time the landscape looks completely different.

With Arsenal winless in their last four Premier League games and Man City suffering back-to-back defeats against Bournemouth and Brighton and Hove Albion, Arne SlotLiverpool have continued to accumulate points.

they fired Villa Aston last weekend to open a five-point lead at the top of the table, with Chelsea and Arsenal, four more points behind after Sunday’s 1-1 draw.

So what does all this mean for the title race? Has it already been narrowed down to just two possible winners?

What does the history of the Premier League suggest?

The start of Slot’s reign in Liverpool has exceeded all expectations. His team have taken 28 points from a possible 33 for Liverpool’s second-best tally at this stage of a Premier League campaign, after their title-winning season in 2019/20.

On that occasion, they had 31 points and a six-point lead after matchday 11, before winning the title by a huge 18-point margin.

The omens are promising for the reds.

Slot’s team is only the sixth in Premier League history to be at least five points clear after 11 games. The previous five won the title: manchester united in 1993/94, Chelsea in 2005/06, Man City in 2011/12, Man City again in 2017/18 and Liverpool in 2019/20.

Of the 11 teams that have equaled or surpassed Liverpool’s current 28 points at this point in the season, only three did not become champions.

Unsurprisingly, the weight of history is against Arsenal and Chelsea, who are now nine points off first place. Never before had a team been more than eight points behind the leader after 11 games and won the title.

But it’s worth noting that teams have overcome larger deficits later in the season. In fact, eight Premier League champions have made up a difference of nine points or more at some point later in the campaign.

The biggest counterattack he saw Arsene WengerEngland’s Arsenal overcame Manchester United’s 13-point lead after 19 games of the 1997/98 season to be crowned champions.

Man City also recovered from an eight-point deficit after 28 games in 2022/23 and 17 games in 2023/24 to win the title.

City may have lost four games in a row in all competitions – the first time (excluding penalties) for pep guardiola in their career, but they’ve still had one of their best starts under their current coach and tend to flourish late in the season. They have only lost four times in the Premier League after Christmas in the last three campaigns.

Arsenal fans will need little reminding that their team spent 248 days at the top of the Premier League in 2022/23, only to miss out to Man City at the death.

Have any of the contenders had it easier than others?

When asked last week about Arsenal’s recent problems, Mikel Arteta He insisted that no other Premier League team had faced as tough a challenge as his.

“There are other things,” he said. “The level of opposition we have faced, because no one has played the away games we have played this season, and certainly not in the condition of playing half of those games with 10 men.”

While the red cards are entirely self-inflicted, is the Arsenal manager right about the intensity of the match?

Here you can see the average league position of the opponents each of the top four teams have faced so far: home, away and overall. The lower the average, the higher the opponents they have faced so far are currently ranked.

Average league position of rivals so far

Perhaps Arteta is right, especially when it comes to the difficulty of his team’s away games.

Arsenal’s average opposition when traveling is 7.3, after their trips to Villa Aston, Tottenham HotspurCity of Man, Bournemouth, Newcastle and Chelsea.

This is almost twice as difficult as Liverpool’s average of 14.2, with the Reds outperforming rivals such as ipswich town, Crystal Palace and wolves away from Anfield.

What about the next games?

Each club will face eight more games before the middle of the season.

It’s always a difficult period before and immediately after Christmas, does the schedule offer any consolation to any particular club in the top four?

Unsurprisingly, given their slightly more complicated games so far, Chelsea and Arsenal appear to have an easier task awaiting them when they return from international duties.

Arsenal are not even required to leave London on their Premier League trips, and only face two first-half teams home or away before the season’s halfway point, while Chelsea face three.

However, the disturbing thing is that there is no dangerous period ahead for Liverpool either.

League position of next opponents

What do the managers say?

Arne Slot, Liverpool manager

“We know it’s a long season where we have to continually be at the top of our game because teams like Arsenal, City and Chelsea and all these other clubs can win as many games as we can in the first 15 or 16 games. .

“So we have to stay at the top of our game, which will never be easy, but we will try as hard as we can.”

Pep Guardiola, Manchester City coach

“Maybe after seven years winning six Premier Leagues, maybe one year another team will deserve it.”

Then he added: “Today at the press conference they asked me if it was the end of the era. I know people want that. I have smelled it for many, many years.

“What we have done in these years, people have said is very difficult, but if someone wanted to beat us, it will happen because in the next 50 years we will not win every Premier League. “It’s impossible.”

Enzo Maresca, Chelsea coach

“For me, we are behind these types of clubs like City and Arsenal, as they have worked every day with the same coach.

“We are behind them, but Chelsea is one of the biggest clubs in the world and we have to compete and try to win games. We try to compete and very soon we will win these types of games.”

Arteta, Arsenal coach

“Win, win, win because these guys don’t stop winning, so that’s what we have to do.

“When it gets ugly, show your teeth and show how much you want him. When it’s Disneyland, it’s easy, everyone is there for you and tells you how beautiful you are and when it gets dark and difficult, everyone questions it. “That’s when I want to see people, that’s when I’m always looking around.”

What do the experts think?

former Arsenal midfielder Pablo Merson believes that Arteta’s team is one more defeat away from ending their fight for the title.

“It’s a start, it’s a foundation,” he said. sky sports after the 1-1 draw against Chelsea. “He (Arteta) has to get the players fit now, he has to fill the tank, that’s the main thing.

“They have to run. They have to make sure this is reduced to six points before reaching 12 points. If you arrive at 12, good night.”

Fellow former Arsenal player Theo Walcot suggests that it would still be too early to rule out any of the big clubs lifting the Premier League Trophy next May.

“I wouldn’t rule out anyone who’s up there now, at all,” he told bbc. “Liverpool at some point are going to stumble and have injury problems like any other team.”

On Arsenal’s travails, Walcott added: “The difference with Arsenal at the moment is that they are lacking goals, while they are not conceding many.

“But at this stage of the season it is important to take into account who they have played against. I would say that, so far, they have played against tougher teams: they have played six of last season’s top 10, and five of those games have been away from home.

“Also, most of the time they have been without their main player, Martin Odegaardand they are still where they are.

“People tend to forget all that when they see that Arsenal are not playing at the same level as last year, but for me it is one of the reasons not to rule them out in the title race.”

sky sports Expert Jamie Redknapp says Liverpool have a “huge advantage” over their pursuers.

“We are going to go to the end because we have already seen that anyone can beat anyone,” he said. “What Liverpool have going for them is that Arsenal have to go there too. That’s a big advantage. Going to Anfield is never easy.

“They are in a great position. Arne Slot is a big winner this weekend. I would have seen that and thought: “As long as Arsenal don’t win, I’ll be delighted.” That Manchester City lost has been perfect for them. At the moment, promotion is with Liverpool.”

On City’s title defence, Redknapp added: “For Manchester City this feels like a bit of a crisis. “This is the first time in a few years that people are saying that Manchester City are not favorites to win the title because of the injuries they have.”