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Dave McCormick beat Bob Casey thanks to Trump, messages and money

Sakege November 9, 2024

Aside from former President Donald Trump’s unexpected and decisive victory, one of the most surprising results of Tuesday’s election was The apparent victory of Republican Dave McCormick during three terms of U.S. Senator Bob Casey Jr. (D., Pa.).

casey has not awarded the raceand the narrow lead is likely to trigger Pennsylvania’s automatic recount process once more votes are counted. But the Associated Press called the race for McCormick on Thursday, and Casey faces major obstacles to overturning the result.

Assuming the AP’s call stands, the result will be an earthquake in Pennsylvania politics. Casey, a moderate who often outperforms his party’s leading candidates, had won six state elections in Pennsylvania and his father was a well-known governor.

Christopher Nicholas, a veteran Republican strategist from Pennsylvania, said Casey’s popularity had been falling for months and that McCormick, a former hedge fund executive with a lot of money behind him, was well positioned to take advantage of the situation.

“You always have to look at the incumbent’s poll numbers and the challenger’s money,” said Nicholas, who worked on the late Sen. Arlen Specter’s campaigns. “Casey’s numbers continued to float down. He was a typical lead-from-behind kind of guy. And once his poll numbers drop below 50, it’s always difficult for an incumbent to climb back up.”

Casey’s three Senate election victories came during strong Democratic years: the 2006 midterm elections, which were dominated by the growing unpopularity of the Iraq War and then-President George W. Bush; the re-election of former President Barack Obama in 2012; and the “Trump pullback cycle” of 2018, as Nicholas put it.

“Casey, unlike her other three Senate candidates, did not have the wind at her back,” Nicholas said. “You’ve never had to worry about a tough October.”

So how did McCormick achieve victory? It came down to Trump, the messages and the money.

A complicated case of skirts

In 2012, Casey led then-President Barack Obama by 1.7 percentage points among Pennsylvania voters, and his margin of victory over Republican Senate candidate Tom Smith was 3.7 percentage points larger than Obama’s over the Republican Mitt Romney.

This year, observers expected Casey to top his party’s ticket again, potentially allowing him to survive even if Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly lost to Trump in the Keystone State.

That formula failed to save Casey for two reasons. First, he didn’t outperform Harris. Casey is on track to win 48.5% of the vote, the same share Harris appears to have won in Pennsylvania. He might even end up with slightly fewer votes than her once the count is complete, which would be a shocking result given Casey’s history.

The other problem with the headline was that Trump did better in Pennsylvania than expected. In Wisconsin and Michigan, the other two “blue wall” states, Trump won by less than 1 percentage point and Democrats retained seats in the Senate. In Pennsylvania, Trump appears to have won by about 2 percentage points.

But there was still hope for Casey because McCormick, who got 48.9% of the vote Friday afternoon, underperformed Trump, who got 50.5%. So despite not winning more votes than Harris, Casey appears to have edged her by 1.5 percentage points in terms of her margin, mainly due to having a less popular opponent, and still could have pulled off a victory.

If Casey had outperformed Harris significantly, he would have won re-election.

Casey beat Harris in the Rust Belt, but not in Philadelphia

Casey had better margins than Harris in several post-industrial areas such as Lackawanna County, which includes Casey’s hometown of Scranton.

But his margins fell behind those of the vice president in three counties that give Democratic candidates their biggest advantages in Pennsylvania: Philadelphia, Montgomery and Allegheny, which includes Pittsburgh.

In Philadelphia, for example, Casey has won 78% of the votes counted so far, while Harris has 79%. That 1 percentage point difference is equivalent to more than 26,000 votes, although part of that difference is due to more people voting in the presidential election.

Meanwhile, Bucks County, which continues to earn a reputation as one of the purplest counties in Pennsylvania, appears to have backed Trump and Casey. Bucks still has thousands of provisional, military and overseas votes to count. But if Trump’s lead holds, he would be the first Republican presidential candidate to win the county since 1988.

Overall, Casey is poised to win 12 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties. But his vote share declined in every county compared to his most recent reelection campaign in 2018, a strong year for Democrats.

His support declined most dramatically in Greene and Fayette counties, deep in Trump territory bordering West Virginia.

McCormick linked Casey to Kamala Harris

One reason Casey might not have overtaken Harris is that McCormick worked tirelessly to link Casey to the vice president.

The Republican and his allies covered the airwaves with ads calling Casey a “weak career politician” who would be a “rubber stamp” for Harris’ agenda, noting that he voted with her and President Joe Biden’s administration almost the entire year. time.

Meanwhile, Casey attempted to fight back with ads touting his alignment with Trump’s protectionist trade policies.

(By contrast, Casey’s aggressive attack ads against McCormick, questioning his ties to Pennsylvania and highlighting investments McCormick’s former hedge fund made in China, may have been the reason the Republican failed to follow through. Trump beat).

Another reason Casey did not advance to the Democratic nomination may be that The current president’s policies are now more aligned with the orthodoxy of his party. than when he began his Senate career as a “pro-life Democrat” who opposed new gun regulations and same-sex marriage. Although he is still to the right of his party on energy issues, he now supports marriage equality, a national guarantee of abortion rights and new gun control measures.

McCormick benefited from a Wall Street-funded super PAC

Although McCormick had Trump’s coattails and a seemingly successful messaging strategy, none of that would be enough without money. And thanks to a Wall Street-backed super PAC, McCormick had a ton of money.

Keystone Renewal PAC was the only outside spending group dedicated exclusively to the Pennsylvania Senate race. A large majority of the rest of the money spent in the race came from the candidates’ campaigns and their parties.

Rivals of long-standing incumbents often struggle to raise money. But McCormick is the former CEO of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, and has connections to some of the richest people in the world.

Many of Keystone Renewal’s donors know McCormick personally, and the PAC’s spending helped make him financially competitive in the $300 million-plus race.

The PAC spent about $54 million, according to the government transparency organization Open Secrets. About $41 million of that amount was spent attacking Casey, while $13 million went to boosting McCormick.

Keystone Renewal’s largest donor was Ken C. Griffin, the billionaire owner of Citadel Securities, a financial services company. He also received millions from Jeff Yass, the richest man in Pennsylvania and an ardent supporter of “school choice” policies, which McCormick favors.

Staff writer Katie Bernard and graphic editor John Duchneskie contributed to this article.