President-elect Donald Trump has made no secret of his views on climate change. During his first presidency he repeatedly expressed doubt that this was caused by human behavior, calling it a “hoax”, and in the election campaign for a second term, he called it “one of the great scams of all time”.

So what’s in store for the climate during a new Trump era?

Global climate efforts at stake

“Trump’s victory presents a real obstacle in the global fight against climate change,” said Alice Hill, a senior fellow at the independent think tank Council on Foreign Relations. “Under President Trump’s leadership, the United States will almost certainly take a step back from global and domestic efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by increasing fossil fuel production.”

2024 is virtually certain to be the warmest year on record and the first year with temperatures above 1.5°C, according to a new report from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). And scientists have long sounded the alarm about the need to halve planet-warming emissions by 2030 to avoid a climate catastrophe. Achieving that means working together. But experts warn that Trump’s “America First” policies do not go hand in hand with global collaboration on climate action. Although the United States is currently the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world after China and the largest historical emitter.

‘Drill, baby, drill’

Before the election, Trump pledged to expand domestic fossil fuel production, focus more on oil and gas and spend less on clean energy.

“Donald Trump and his supporters clearly hold the view that oil and gas are truly central to America’s global strength and should not be trifled with,” said Clarence Edwards, executive director of E3G’s Washington, D.C., office. , a nonprofit think tank working at the intersection of climate and geopolitics.

During his first term, the Trump administration promoted increased oil and natural gas extraction, including in protected areas such as Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and advocated the construction of pipelines such as Keystone XL and Dakota Access.

Even before the election, Trump had hinted that he would continue this trend if he won. But Edwards says that doesn’t mean renewables will disappear entirely, it just means the incoming administration will focus more on hydrocarbons.

What does a second Trump term mean for the Paris Agreement?

Trump’s victory comes just days before the UN climate conference, COP29, begins in Azerbaijan. During his first term, the president-elect pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement, which is a commitment to keep global temperature rise well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

Trump’s withdrawal from the treaty was a major point of contention at the time, and although the United States rejoined under the Biden administration, Edwards believes the incoming president is likely to take the same action again.

“It would be the wrong signal. It is important for the United States to honor its agreements and be a committed global player,” he said, adding that if Trump were to withdraw from the Paris Agreement again, it would raise questions about other international climate commitments.

The implications for environmental policies.

During his first term, Trump repealed dozens of Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations, loosened restrictions on carbon emissions from power plants and vehicles, and weakened rules governing pollutants such as methane.

Barry Rabe, a professor of environmental policy at the University of Michigan, predicts a further dilution of environmental regulations.

“There are a number of things that Mr. Trump has said during this campaign about trying to expand the limits of executive or presidential power beyond traditional norms, such as seizing funds, something that we don’t normally give the president the power to do,” Rabe said. saying.

He also anticipates a return to looser regulations that would likely mean the United States cannot meet its 2030 climate goals.

“The United States will fall well short of that goal for carbon dioxide, but also for methane and most other greenhouse gases,” he said.

What will become of the IRA?

While some fear that the landmark Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a climate bill signed by Biden that invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the deployment of renewable energy, the production of electric cars and the manufacturing of batteries, may be in play under President Trump, Edwards doesn’t think so.

“It’s been very successful in boosting clean energy manufacturing and jobs across the country, especially in the so-called Red States, which receive about 70% of the Inflation Reduction Act investments, so I think “There will be an effort to perhaps not repeal the entire IRA, but to modify it in sections,” he said.

And Rabe agrees. “Realistically, it would take an act of Congress to completely repeal the IRA.”

He added that regarding the IRA provisions, “it wouldn’t be surprising to see Donald Trump return to the Oval Office trying to stop or slow spending on congressionally authorized funds that he didn’t like.”

Environmental impact of Trump’s ‘Project 2025’

Ahead of the election, a group of conservative organizations and think tanks developed a controversial document called “Project 2025,” a series of policy proposals and strategic recommendations for a second Trump presidency.

The document promotes the continued development of the American fossil fuel industry, advocating for greater production of oil, natural gas and coal, as well as fewer restrictions around the extraction and construction of new fossil fuel infrastructure.

One report found that if Trump approves the energy and environmental policies outlined in the document, he could add four billion tons to the country’s emissions by 2030.

That would be equivalent to almost another year of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere by the United States.

It would make it impossible for the United States to meet its goal of cutting emissions in half by 2030, which scientists say is vital to avoiding disastrous climate change.

Not everything is pessimism and doom

“However, this result does not mean the end of climate action in the United States,” Hill said, noting the power of action at the state level and the progress already made in some cases. “Local political and regulatory intervention will be critical in the fight for a healthier planet, with or without support from the Trump administration.”

Edwards says it’s vital to get people working together and continuing to make progress.

“It sounds fantastic, but I think it’s important to really have a bipartisan dialogue about what we need to do around climate,” he said. “We are not going to have a long-term sustainable climate policy in the United States unless we achieve bipartisan consensus.”

Louise Osborne contributed to this report.

Edited by: Tamsin Walker