He TCU horned frogs They are 5-4 on the season after losing to their rivals Baylor last weekend. Although they have not yet reached bowl eligibility, the Frogs managed to cover the spread (+3) with a final score of 37-34. This week, the Horned Frogs face a Oklahoma State Cowboys team that is still searching for its first conference win, and are currently -10 favorites.

The TCU has a FPI probability of 61.2% to win this game, and are currently 5-4 against the spread after covering against the Bears last weekend. The over is 6-3, with 72 points covering the 63 over/under points.

Looking at the Cowboys’ preseason projection, fans are baffled by where Mike Gundy and his team are at. After opening the season as overwhelming favorites to be in Arlington playing for a conference championship, the Pokes still find themselves searching for the first Big 12 win of the season. The Pokes returned 20 of 22 starters from last season, including the QB. Alan Bowman who was on the bench during the season due to his play but returns to the starting lineup after an injury.

Another thing to keep in mind for this matchup is that Oklahoma State has the 132nd-ranked defense in the entire FBS. There are only 134 teams. The Pokes allow over 500 yards per game and also allow over 31 points per game. Compare that to their offense, which, despite having All-American Ollie Gordon II ranks 117th in rushing offense per game, and a quarterback who struggled so much that he was benched for the season.

That being said, -10 still seems like a lot of points for a Horned Frog team that has struggled to find consistency throughout the season. The Frogs have been trending upward in their offensive consistency over the last two games after struggling against houston and Utah. TO gain makes the Frogs bowl eligible, something the coaching staff hasn’t done since 2022, which was also the last time TCU played the Cowboys and won in an overtime thriller. I’m going to go with my gut on this one and believe in the TCU offense to find sustained success against an Oklahoma State defense that has struggled all year.

The choice: TCU -10 or better

Oklahoma State’s offense is averaging 29 points per game, thanks to its non-conference performance. When adjusted for conference play alone, he averages 22 points per game, a difference close to a touchdown. On the other side of the ball, TCU averages 32 points per game, led by long island (45) and SMU (42). When adjusted for conference play, the Frogs average 28 points per game.

Given that TCU’s defense’s main issues come from the run, Oklahoma State’s inability to get Gordon going, and Horned Frog’s inability to stay consistent on the offensive side of the ball, I think the line is a bit too high for this case.

2024 record: 0-0

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