There is no silver lining for Democrats.

Donald Trump has won everywhere and is going to win the popular vote.

He did better across all demographics, growing his coalition with black voters, Latinos and young voters.

America became less racially divided by party.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris underperformed Joe Biden virtually everywhere as Trump improved his 2020 margin in 2,367 counties.

Its margin decreased in only 240 counties.

Why did Trump do so well?

Trump didn’t just sweep the swing states, and none of them will be that close.

He closed the gap on Harris in a ton of Democratic states.

She won anemic victories in New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Minnesota, while he widened his margins in red states to achieve big generational victories in Florida and Iowa.

He changed Miami Dade County, gaining a predominantly Latino county. Hillary Clinton won by 30 points to 10 in 2016.

It pushed down Harris’ margins in large urban centers around the world, including Chicago, New York and Austin.

What did the Democrats do wrong?

1. Biden stayed too long
2. The lack of a primary process means Democrats were denied the opportunity to elect someone not associated with the Biden-Harris administration, which also denied them the opportunity to properly develop a message.
3. Withdrawal from Afghanistan (Biden polls never recovered)
4. Too much (somewhat) inflationary stimulus spending during COVID
5. Israel’s handling of the war in Gaza
6. Long-term erosion in the ethnic minority voter base without corresponding improvements among white voters
7. Trump’s enduring political appeal and Democrats’ confusion over how to deal with him.

How serious is this loss?

This represents a much more devastating loss for Democrats than in 2016.

They had much to console them that year: a massive victory in the popular vote, a narrow defeat in the electoral college in some places, a strong coalition of ethnic minorities that looked like a solid electoral map of the future.

Roe v. Wade was intact and the Supreme Court was still balanced.

Now they don’t have any of that.

Instead, they are looking toward a transformed Republican Party and a sustained inability to know how to deal with Trump and MAGAism.

In terms of policy, they have nowhere to go either.

During Biden’s term, they governed exactly according to their own instincts, and the electorate rejected him outright.

What does it mean for Trump?

This victory cements Trump’s position as the seminal American political figure of this century.

Biden thought it would be the restoration of the old order, but Trump has made sure it was the last gasp of it.

The Republican Party is now permanently MAGA and the Democrats will change too: the old liberal order will not return.

Economic policy will be more protectionist in all directions, both parties will be more isolationist, politics will be more aggressive, and Democrats will be less likely to elect candidates who will make history.

Politics will look more like Trump in the future, especially since his movement now has a natural heir and successor in JD Vance, an ambitious young vice president.

Meanwhile, Democrats have no obvious leader.