Top line

Former President Donald Trump enters Election Day having significantly reduced the poll lead that Vice President Kamala Harris gained over him shortly after she entered the race, with averages showing Trump leading four of the seven battlegrounds, but By such narrow margins the race could be either candidate will win.

Key facts

What to take into account

A repeat of the errors in the 2020 and 2016 polls could lead to a electoral college sweep for any of the candidates. the seven undecided states They have average electoral margins of 2.2 points or less, meaning that if the polls are off by just two or three points in favor of a candidate, they could win in a landslide. Statistician Nate Silver predicts that either candidate has a 60% chance of winning at least six of several battlegrounds, he wrote in an article for The New York Timesin which he predicts a Trump victory based on his gut, but warns that “50-50 is the only responsible forecast.”

What we don’t know

When the results will be called. After North Carolina and Georgia, Wisconsin is the next swing state where results are expectedlikely late on Election Day or early the next morning, followed by Michigan the day after the election, officials in both states said. Pennsylvania could take several days to tabulate results, while Nevada and Arizona are expected to be the slowest in counting ballots. Arizona officials estimate it could take 10 to 13 days before results are finalized.

big number

1.2. These are the points by which Harris leads Trump in FiveThirtyEight survey average starting Monday. He is also ahead in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is tied, although all races are within 2.2 points or less.

Key background

Trump announced his final campaign for the presidency nearly two years ago as the Republican Party’s loyalty to the former president appeared to be wavering. He declared his third candidacy after the unexpected Republican losses of his preferred candidates in the November 2022 midterm elections that many in the party blamed Trump for. At the time, some party leaders were still bewildered, if not openly public, by their anguish over Trump’s role in the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. Trump sparked further reactions among Republicans when he dined with a supremacist white Nick Fuentes and controversial rapper Kanye West at Mar-a-Lago just weeks after announcing his campaign, compounding criticism that it seemed as if Trump’s grip on the party may be loosening. But his criminal indictments the following year—first in his Manhattan hush money trial in March 2023, followed by his federal election interference and classified documents cases, and his indictment in Fulton County, Georgia, against his efforts to overturn elections in the state)united the party behind Trump as he claimed the cases amounted to election interference designed to prevent him from retaking the White House in 2020. Trump surged in the polls after President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance in June, but briefly trailed Harris after of his entry into the race, before narrowing the gap nationally and in the seven swing states. Trump chose Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, as his running mate in July.

Tangent

Trump’s second campaign is in many ways a more aggressive version of his first, with intensified anti-immigration rhetoric, promises of seek retribution against his political enemies and a continuation of his false claims that he is the real winner of the 2020 election. He has promised to enact even stricter border policies if elected, including mass detentions and deportations of undocumented immigrants. Has laid out plans for increase tariffs by 10% in all areas and 60% in imports from China, proposals more experts warn could raise prices for consumers, since the cost of tariffs would likely be absorbed by some combination of U.S. companies importing goods, customers buying them, and foreign companies exporting them.

Chief Critic

Harris has focused much of her campaign on attacking Trump for his role in January 6 and his incendiary rhetoric against his political adversaries. warning in what she called her “closing argument” last week in Washington that Trump is “unstable, obsessed with revenge, consumed by grievance and seeking unchecked power.” Your campaign too sought to cast Trump’s increasing penchant for rants and wild behavior on stage as signs that he is exhausted and his mental acuity has diminished, pointing to the 30 minutes Trump spent dancing on stage to music during a rally in Pennsylvania last month. and his refusal to disclose his medical records. .

Additional reading

Trump vs. Harris Polls 2024: Harris Up a Razor-Breaking 1 Point in Final Forbes/HarrisX Poll (Forbes)

Shifting state polls for 2024 election: Near tie on ‘blue wall’ as Trump and Harris battle for Pennsylvania (latest update) (Forbes)

Can Trump and Harris tie in tomorrow’s election? It’s possible: this is what would happen (Forbes)

‘Blue Mirage’ and ‘Red Mirage’ explained: Why tomorrow’s first swing state vote count may be misleading (Forbes)

This is when we will know the results of the Trump-Harris election in the swing states we must win (Forbes)