Outgoing TDs: New constituency. The outgoing TDs for the five-seat Tipperary constituency are Michael Lowry (Indiana), Alan Kelly (Laboratory), Jackie Cahill (FF – retired), Mattie McGrath (Indiana), Martin Browne (FS)

Who are the candidates running in the South Tipperary constituency? Deputy Mattie McGrath (Ind), Deputy Martin Browne (SF), Cllr Imelda Goldsboro (FF), Cllr Michael Murphy (FG), Cllr Michael “Chicken” Brennan (Lab), Cllr John O’Heney (Ind), Séamus Healy ( WUA), Myriam Madigan (GP), John McGrath (NP), Nadaline Webster (II)

If North Tipp have a dominant independent in Michael Lowry, South Tipp have theirs in Mattie McGrath, their first. fiana Fail TD, who has been independent (re-elected each time) since the financial crisis a decade and a half ago. It is the favorite to return here.

After that it’s much more uncertain. fine gael he ruined his strategy here during the last two elections, but this time he decided on Micheal Murphy, a long-serving councilor and current mayor of Clonmel, the constituency’s largest population centre. It would be a surprise if Murphy didn’t take a seat. If he does, and assuming McGrath is re-elected, the final seat is likely to come down to a battle between Fianna Fáil candidate Imelda Goldsboro and sitting MPs. Sinn Fein TD Martin Browne.

Even Browne’s biggest supporters would say that his election last time was a surprise: after disastrous local election results and internal party divisions, Browne stepped into the breach at a late stage, only to be the beneficiary of Mary’s big surge Lou from 2020. Repeating that trick will be difficult.

But just as Lowry cornered traditional Fine Gael votes in North Tipp, McGrath draws many Fianna Fáil votes in the South. Goldsboro topped the poll in the Carrick-on-Suir area in local elections but to get ahead of Browne he will need to also withdraw votes from Clonmel, where former independent TD Séamus Healy is also standing again. Healy used to take much of the old Labor Party vote in the city, but the Labor Party is in better shape in the constituency than before, with Killenaule councilor Michael “Chicken” Brennan running for the party.

Ultimately, the final seat is likely to be a shootout between these four, with Goldsboro and Browne in the strongest positions to challenge.

Possible result: Independent (1), Fine Gael (1), Fianna Fáil (1)