News broke Thursday morning that Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to play on Sunday due to a left shoulder injury.

That leaves Mac Jones in line to make his first start for Jacksonville after being signed by the team this offseason. As a result, the betting market has adjusted the odds for their Week 10 game against the Minnesota Vikings.

Let’s take a look at how the odds have changed and then I’ll predict what the final result will be.

Via fees FanDuel Sports Betting

Spread

money line

Total

Due to the news of Lawrence’s injury, the line has shot up in favor of the Vikings, going from -4.5 to -7. Not only is 2.5 points a significant move, but the spread reaching the key number of seven is important when it comes to NFL betting. The match total has dropped three points, from 47.5 to 44.5.

I bet the Vikings earlier in the week at -4.5, but based on line movement I now like the Jaguars to get all seven points with Mac Jones at quarterback.

The Vikings will be in a great position to win this game against a Jaguars defense that ranks last in opponent EPA per play. Overall, Minnesota is the better team with sixth in net yards per play (+0.5) this season compared to the 23rd-ranked Jaguars (-0.4). That said, I don’t think Jones is as significant a drop as the line movement indicates.

Lawrence has been an average quarterback this season and Jones could see a career resurgence in a new environment. Let’s remember the bad situation he found himself in with the Patriots, having to play against a terrible offensive line with no weapons at receiver. Jones looked strong in the preseason for the Jaguars and could have a solid outing on Sunday.

I still think the Vikings win and cover the original number, but in terms of my final score prediction, I’ll pick the Jaguars to keep it within one touchdown.

Final result prediction: Vikings 28, Jaguares 22

Odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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You can consult all Iain’s bets here!