The Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders will meet in Week 10 in a matchup between two teams that were surprisingly impressive in the first half of the 2024 campaign.

Both teams have just two losses on the season with the Steelers at 6-2 and the Commanders at 7-2. Both teams enter Week 10 with a slight half-game lead in their respective divisions, making a win this week significant in the standings going forward.

Let’s take a look at how the odds for this game have changed throughout the week and then I’ll predict what the final result will be.

Via fees FanDuel Sports Betting

Spread

money line

Total

The line has shifted slightly toward the Steelers. The Commanders opened as 3-point favorites, but the spread dropped half a point to Commanders -2.5. The match total has also decreased by half a point, from 46.0 to 45.5.

I collapsed in this week’s edition of the “On the way to 272 bets“Why I’m looking at the total in this interconference matchup:

In a match between two teams that I think are having superior performance this season, I’ll take UNDER. There has been a repeated belief, which I have certainly fallen into, that the Commanders’ defense is one of the worst in the NFL when, in fact, they have improved throughout the season and rank inside the top 15 in the most metrics since then. Week 6. The total in this game indicates that their defense is still in the bottom 10 and I don’t think that is no longer true.

Offensively, Washington is going to suffer some regression. They’ve only played one team this season whose defense ranks in the top 15 in EPA. That team was the Bears and the Commanders were only able to score 18 points, the fewest of the season. Now, they play the Steelers, who rank sixth in opponent EPA per play and 10th in opponent success rate.

I think we’ll see more of a defensive battle than people expect. Give me the BASS.

When it comes to which team is going to win this game, I’ll root for the Steelers. Russell Wilson has looked much better in his two starts with the Steelers than he did during his entire time with the Broncos, which is great news for the Steelers. The Commanders, based on their defense and schedule so far, look like a much more likely candidate for regression than Pittsburgh.

Final Result Prediction: Steelers 21, Commanders 16

Odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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