The what of the matter

Jaxon Smith-Njigba He had 7 receptions, 180 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 9 against the LA Rams. This was the best game of his young NFL career.

Is Smith-Njigba emerging as an elite receiver or was the Rams’ game an aberration? Will you be able to maintain the initial fantasy value when DK Metcalf coming back from a grade 1 MCL sprain? If not, when is your deadline to potentially sell high in the hot Smith-Njigba week?

The details of the fantasy

Smith-Njigba was WR24 in PPR formats after Week 8, a low-end WR2 in most fantasy starting lineups. His best game was a 23.7-point game against the New England Patriots, the 19th most generous defensive unit for fantasy wide receivers.

After scoring 37 points against the Rams, the seventh-most unselfish defense among fantasy WRs, Smith-Njigba jumped from WR24 to WR13. His 37 points were more than he scored against the Lions (13.1), Giants (13.1) and 49ers (10.3) in Weeks 4-6 combined.

Smith-Njigba’s opponents and WR production against him

As you can see, Los Angeles and Detroit were the most generous teams to wide receivers overall that Smith-Njigba has faced so far, and the Rams, Lions, and 49ers were the most generous to wide receivers. Additionally, Seattle was left without DK Metcalf over the past two weeks, elevating Njigba’s priority in the offensive game plan.

When considering the Rams’ porous pass defense, a prolific passing offense with their top weapons in the lineup to dictate a high-scoring game script, and the absence of Metcalf, it’s easy to imagine how Smith-Njigba won nearly 30 percent. of his overall fantasy value against Los Angeles in Week 9.

Does the movie support this theory? Yes, it does.

If you don’t have 15 minutes to look at the dozen routes I analyzed in this game, you can see my thoughts in the points below.

NFL receivers can see the field and contribute if they can beat man-to-man or zone coverage. In order for them to take their games beyond situational specialists, they must possess some proficiency with both types of coverage. For them to become consistent threats for top-15 production, they must excel against both.

Smith-Njigba excels against zone coverage. He is proficient in man coverage. He would be better in man coverage if he strengthened his ability to win contested objectives with the technique of a primary option.

Until he does, expecting the game against the Rams to be the moment when Smith-Njigba notifies the league that he is an emerging force is premature.

Looking ahead for Smith-Njigba

Here’s the remaining schedule for Smith-Njigba and the Seahawks.

Smith-Njigba’s remaining opponents and WR production against him

Considering that there was a possibility of DK Metcalf To return against the Rams, he will likely return to the field after the Week 10 bye. Although Metcalf did not practice last week, there was also serious negotiation between the Seahawks and Steelers for a possible deal involving Metcalf.

Seattle could have kept Metcalf out of practice (and the game) as a precaution. If Metcalf returns in Week 11, expect Smith-Njigba’s ceiling to drop precipitously. He will still have fantasy value as a WR2-WR3 value against teams that are generous with receivers or are in the bottom third of the league against wide receivers overall.

His value could drop to the WR3-WR5 range against stingy units to WR overall and/or specifically good in limited slot options. Week 11

Tips on writing and dynasty

GMs getting drafted might try to sell Smith-Njigba high if you find a GM who is impulsive about chasing points. Otherwise, you’ll be holding onto the receiver as a matchup play against weaker defenses or if Metcalf isn’t ready after the bye week.

There are some viable options regarding Smith-Njigba in dynasty leagues. metcalf, Tyler Lockettand Gene SmithThe contracts end after the 2025 season. The Seahawks are unlikely to extend Smith. Lockett will likely retire.

Selling soon

Considering Metcalf was on the table for the Steelers this week, it’s possible that in 2026 he’ll be gone too. This could make Smith-Njigba the player the Seahawks hope to build around. If so, you keep Smith-Njigba and hope he takes the lead role.

For this to happen, you will need to become a leading receiver like Cooper Kupp. While Sean McVay’s offense is a popular scheme these days, trends change quickly in the NFL, and two years can account for 30 to 50 percent of a starting WR’s career in the NFL.

The likely best-case scenario is for Smith-Njigba to further assume Lockett’s role before the Seahawks switch quarterbacks. Lockett remains the PPR Fantasy WR30 and a viable starter in many formats.

Unless the Seahawks acquire a proven free agent quarterback, the NFL Draft will be a toss-up for Smith-Njigba’s prospects. Even if they land a good rookie quarterback, it may be a year or two before Smith-Njigba’s production returns to the reliable value we’ve seen in 2024.

If you have WR depth and can sell Smith-Njigba for multiple picks, one of them at least a second-round pick (see Dan Hindery’s trade calculators and trade value charts), it might be the smarter path because there will be a Many questions about the management and staff in Seattle.

Tenure

If you hold onto Smith-Njigba, you’re betting that he’ll get a veteran free agent quarterback of value and that his skills will improve to the point that he’s Tyler Lockett Part II. That could happen, but you are depending on two factors that could go in the opposite direction than you count and that makes this choice riskier.

However, if he’s right, Smith-Njigba could become one of the highest-volume options in fantasy football and an elite PPR receiver. The risk is that Smith-Njigba doesn’t land the veteran QB, that the team drafts or signs receivers who could be top outside options, that the current staff is fired and the new one doesn’t want to emphasize the slot role.

If this happens, you had a chance to get rid of Smith-Njigba at a WR2-WR3 value, but now you’re not even getting reasonable offers with him as a WR4. I bet he’ll still be a viable WR3 at point guard, but there’s a palpable risk that the talent around him disappears, and over the next 1-2 years, you’ll see Smith-Njigba become the fantasy Demario Douglas of the Pacific Northwest all the way to Seattle . Find more talent.

Buy

As for shopping Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks are expected to trade Metcalf this offseason, the coaching staff remains intact, the team drafts a rookie who needs a year or two of acclimation, and Smith-Njigba become the production leader while Gene Smith It is still under the center.

There is reason to believe this could happen, considering the potential Metcalf trade we learned about this week. If this happens, not only will you have added a player who could have a peak year in 2025, but you could also sell him high before the end of the season and maximize your profits.

Conclusion

I’d probably sell it. I like Smith-Njigba’s talent, but there are a lot of factors that will have to work exactly as a QB, WR, and retaining the current personnel for Smith-Njigba to become a better fantasy player than he is now.

Until next week, good luck!

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