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Here’s who’s leading the key battlegrounds for the 2024 election

Sakege November 5, 2024

Top line

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively a head-to-head: The latest pre-election polls from Sunday and Monday show the candidates split in the seven swing states, and the crucial of Pennsylvania is practically tied.

Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.

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Key facts

Snowfall: This is also a chance: Trump is ahead by 0.3 points in the fivethirtyeight average, but the Times/Siena survey shows Harris leading 49% to 46% and YouGov has Harris leading 48% to 47%, while Emerson shows a tie at 48%.

Georgia: Trump’s lead is razor-thin: he has a 0.7-point lead in the FiveThirtyEight average, and he leads between 50% and 49% in The Emerson Survey50%-48% in the morning consultation poll and 48%-46% in the YouGov poll, but Harris is ahead 48%-47% according to the Times/Siena poll.

North carolina: Another narrow lead for Trump: he leads by 0.9 points in FiveThirtyEight Dataand is ahead 49% to 48% according to Emerson, 49% to 47% according to Morning Consult, and 48% to 47% according to YouGov, although Harris leads 48% to 46% in the Times/Siena. survey.

Michigan: It’s a margin of error advantage for Harris: she leads by one point in the FiveThirtyEight data, 50%-48% in the Emerson poll, 49%-48% in the Morning Consult poll and 47%-45% according to YouGov, but they are tied at 47% in the New York Times/Siena survey.

Wisconsin: Harris has a slight advantage: he gains 1.1 percentage points. fivethirtyeightand she leads Trump 48% to 45% according to YouGov and 49% to 47% according to Times/Siena, but they are tied at 49% in the Emerson polls, and Morning Consult has a lead of about one point about Trump.

Arizona: It’s the biggest lead of any swing state, and it’s still very close: Trump is up 2.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight average, and leads 49%-45% according to Times/Siena, 50%-48% according to Emerson and 48%-47%. according to YouGov, although Morning Consult found a 48% tie.

big number

1.1 points. That’s Harris’ Lead in FiveThirtyEight National Poll average.

Who is the favorite to win the elections?

It’s very close. fivethirtyeight gives Trump a 52% chance of winning, while statistician Nate Silver put your odds at 50.4%. If the above polling averages are correct in the seven swing states, Harris will achieve a narrow electoral victory, but the polls could easily be offand even a small mistake either direction could lead to a landslide victory for Trump or Harris.

Is Iowa a swing state?

Probably not, but a new poll released Saturday has surprised some people. Renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer found harris leading Trump by 47% to 44%, a shocking result given Selzer’s excellent reputation and Iowa’s status as a red state. Most other Iowa polls show Trump with a significant lead. It’s unclear whether the poll’s findings, which suggested that women, independents and older voters have swung sharply against Trump, will be replicated in other swing states like neighboring Wisconsin.

Tangent

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 amid an intra-party revolt over her debate performance, dramatically changing the Democrats’ fortunes. Before the change, polls consistently found that Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, even though Biden won six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.