“I don’t agree with the premise that California is leaning more to the right when it comes to the old days of mass incarceration,” he said. “I think on certain issues, yes, the electorate is frustrated by feelings of insecurity, even though those feelings are often not based on data in terms of the likelihood of being a victim, whether of a property crime or a crime against a person. .”

The Yes on 36 campaign focused on “a sense of insecurity and uncertainty” that highlights the most visible elements of crime in the pandemic era, Ocen said. Although in general violent and property crime rates much closer to their all-time lows In addition to their spikes, certain visible crimes, such as robberies and car thefts, have increased year over year since the pandemic until at least 2023, the latest year for which statistics are available.

“There’s a frustration that in addition to routinely seeing homeless people on the streets, there’s a sense of unease, even if it’s not reflected in the data,” Ocen said.

End of September surveys showed that as many likely voters favored expanded treatment and rehabilitation as those who advocated for harsher sentences.

Supporters of the measure insist the changes will not require the type of mass incarceration that led to California’s massive prison overcrowding problem in the 1990s and 2000s.

What Californians see in urban centers

Claudia Oliveira, executive director of the Downtown Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce, said businesses in the city’s commercial center have had to make adjustments since the pandemic to combat retail theft: a Burlington coat factory, He said, he moved all his merchandise to the store. second floor for a time due to repeated break-ins on the ground floor.

“It’s not something we should be angry about, but rather sad because we are in a place where people are not healthy and people still live in scarcity and have to steal,” he said.

“Sometimes people say, ‘It’s just a property crime, so what do you care?’ They have insurance.’ Which is not always true. They have deductibles. I have seen small businesses closed after being looted. And it is not always true that they have the resources to recover, especially in the center.”

Oliveira said he could not vote on Proposition 36 because it is undocumented. But he said he supported the measure because he hopes it connects people with substance abuse or mental health issues to social services, while preventing theft on the scale California has seen since the start of the pandemic.

Jeff Ashook, 48, said his life in downtown Los Angeles has changed for the worse.

“I started working here in downtown Los Angeles, before the pandemic, and I lived in Glendale at the time, and yes, I parked about a half mile from where I work,” he said. “And I felt safe walking to work. I did.

“After the pandemic, the homeless came back, but the police officers never did.”

Ashook said he now lives downtown but drives the five blocks to work because he fears for his safety.

“And I have had coworkers who were physically attacked. A few co-workers who ended up having to go to the hospital during that short distance I walked,” he said. “So yeah, like I said, it’s made me a little more tired.”

In the end, Ashook said he couldn’t support Proposition 36 because of the projected costs.

“I don’t like that the fiscal impact is ranging from several tens of millions of dollars to a few hundred million,” he said. “That’s a lot of money. And it doesn’t say where that money comes from.”

Voters change priorities on crime in California

Ultimately, Lofstrom said, it’s not really a contradiction to have voted for Proposition 47 in 2014 and also for Proposition 36 this year.

In 2014, the State urgently needed reduce your prison populationfor practical reasons and by court order to maintain the population at no more than 137.5% of the prison system’s capacity.

Today, the urgency goes in the other direction, he stated. But the underlying causes of the rise in shoplifting and property crime in general are still unclear, he said.

“We don’t know what is contributing to the increase in retail theft. “We don’t know to what extent this is due to economic and social challenges that lead to theft,” he said.

Even with Proposition 36 in place, Lofstrom said much remains to be determined about the measure’s implementation.

“Will the police arrest you for it?” asked. “Will prosecutors file these charges? It is not clear how all this will play out.”

Joe Garcia is a member of California Local News