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Here’s how third-party candidates could shape the Trump-Harris race: from Jill Stein to RFK Jr.

Sakege November 5, 2024

Top line

Third-party candidates are on the ballot in crucial swing states, and with the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remaining a virtual tie, a few votes for smaller candidates could decide the difference.

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – AUGUST 23: Former Republican presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and … (+) Republican presidential candidate former US President Donald Trump shakes hands during a campaign rally at the Desert Diamond Arena on August 23, 2024 in Glendale, Arizona. Kennedy announced today that he would suspend his presidential campaign and support former President Trump. (Photo by Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)

fake images

Key facts

Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (who suspended his campaign), the Green Party’s Jill Stein, the Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver, and independent Cornel West have held onto ballot spots in at least some of the seven swing states poised to decide the election.

Oliver is on the ballot in every swing state, Stein and West are on the ballot in most states, and Kennedy is on the ballot only in Michigan and Wisconsin, even though he tried to have his name removed after endorsing Trump.

Third-party candidates are likely to get a minuscule proportion of the vote, but in an election as close as this one, they could matter: minor candidates got between 3% and 4% of the vote in Economist/YouGov and Times/Siena polls in the last week, a proportion of votes greater than the percentage point separating Trump and Harris, while a CNN/SSRS survey of Michigan found that up to 6% of voters backed minor candidates, as Harris had a five-point lead.

Democrats are especially concerned about third-party candidates: Stein and West are running to the left of Harris and are often seen as more likely to take voters away from her than Trump; the final Times/Siena The October national poll shows Trump leading 47% to Harris’ 46%, with third parties included, but a tie (48%-48%) if people are forced to say which way they lean.

RFK Jr.’s role on the remaining battlefields is unclear: before retiring, he was seen as a responsibility for both campaigns, but polls show that it can detract more of Trump with his now persistent candidacy; For example, a Fox News poll released on October 30 showed Harris leading Trump 48%-46% in Michigan when voters are allowed to select Kennedy as their choice (Kennedy is 3%), but that number changes to a 49%-49% tie when voters cannot select Kennedy.

Which swing states have third party candidates and how are these candidates voted on?

Arizona: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein has 2% of the votes and Oliver 1% in a Times/Siena survey published on November 3. In the same poll, Trump has a four-point lead.
Michigan: Stein, Oliver, West and Kennedy are on the ballot. Kennedy has less than half a percentage point, Stein has 2%, West has less than 1% and Oliver has 1% in the Times/Siena survey. In the same poll, Harris is tied with Trump (45% to 45%).
Wisconsin: Stein, Oliver, West and Kennedy are on the ballot. Kennedy has less than half a percentage point, Stein has 1%, West has less than half a percentage point and Oliver has less than 1% in the Times/Siena survey. In the same poll, Harris led Trump by three points.
Georgia: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein has less than 1% and Oliver has 2%, according to the Times/Siena survey. In the same poll, Harris is tied with Trump (46% to 46%).
Snowfall: Oliver is on the ballot; has 2% of the votes, according to Times/Siena survey. In the same poll, Harris leads Trump by three points.
North Carolina: Stein, Oliver and West are on the ballot. Stein has less than 1% of the vote, West has less than half a percentage point and Oliver has less than 1% of the vote, according to the Times/Siena survey. In the same poll, Harris leads Trump by three points.
Pennsylvania: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein has about 1% of the vote and Oliver has less than 1% of the vote, according to the Times/Siena poll. In the same poll, Harris and Trump are tied, 47%-47%.

crucial quote

“This year third parties appear to be getting very little traction and are likely to play a very limited role, but (in) an extremely close election, where a few thousand votes in three or four states could determine the outcome, a third party that ties even within tenths of 1% could make a difference,” Bruce Schulman, a historian and professor at Boston University, told Forbes via email.

Key background

Third party candidates have almost no chance of winning elections, considering the funding and popularity needed to make a dent in the electoral and popular vote. Historically, no third-party candidate has won a presidential race, and they often underperform in the polls. Pew Research Center grades. Still, many of these candidates have put money, effort, and even demands to be included in (or remote of) the ballot. Candidates are often accused of acting as spoilers, a notion that third-party candidates often deny, arguing that they give voters an ideological choice not offered by any of the major parties. Alleged spoilers from previous years include 2016 candidates Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who won 1% and 3% of the vote respectively. Some argue Stein hurt Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign: Green Party candidate won tens of thousands of votes in Wisconsin, a number greater than the margin that earned Trump the presidency. Frequent candidate Ralph Nader is also argued that it was a spoiler due to his 2000 campaign, where he gained a few percentage points in Florida, which George W. Bush narrowly won over Al Gore. The late billionaire Ross Perot ran for president in 1992 against Democrat Bill Clinton and Republican President George HW Bush. He landed about 18.9% of the popular vote, the closest a third-party candidate has come to winning in American history, and was widely believed to have hurt Bush.

What is a protest vote?

In such a close race, some voters see voting for a third party as a means to protest the election or show discontent with two main candidates.

What to take into account

Stein has become the candidate of choice for some Muslim and Arab American voters unhappy with President Joe Biden’s support for Israel in its invasion of Gaza. His support is particularly strong in Michigan (home to a large Arab American population), Arizona and Wisconsin. Reuters reportsciting a survey by an advocacy organization, the Council on American-Islamic Relations. In Michigan, 40% of Muslim voters said they would vote for Stein, compared to 18% for Trump and 12% for Harris, CAIR said.