AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

Jon RalstonCEO and editor of The Nevada Independentpredicted that vice president and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris would win the state’s six electoral votes in a blog post Monday despite Republicans’ unexpected lead in early voting.

After reminding readers of his past success in picking winners of presidential and state elections in the Silver State, Ralston noted that “early voting is different” this year than in any previous year.

“Usually Democrats, driven by the machinery that Harry Reid built, erect a firebreak in populous Clark County that is designed as a bulwark against losses in the 15 red counties, with Washoe County often deciding who wins,” he wrote. “But this cycle, with the former president donald trump and Co. discovering that it might be smart to encourage Republicans to vote early and even by mail (horror!), the Republican vote has been concentrated early. The opposite is true and the question is whether Democrats can overcome a GOP lead of more than 43,000 votes as I write this.”

However, Ralston ultimately concluded that Harris would win a toss-up race between Harris and Trump due to undecided voters’ decision to unite around Harris and the Democrats’ superior political operation:

The key to this election has always been which direction non-major party voters sway because they have become the plurality in the state. They will make up about 30 percent of the electorate, and if they lean enough toward Harris, she will win Nevada. I think they will, and I’ll tell you why: Many people assume that with the GOP catching up to the Democrats in voter registration, the automatic voter registration plan pushed by Democrats that automatically registers people as nonpartisan ( unless they choose a party ) at the DMV had been a failure for the party. But I don’t believe it. There are many non-partisans who are closet Democrats and who were deliberately registered as non-partisan by Democrat-aligned groups. The machine knows who they are and will make them vote. It will be enough to overcome the Republican leadership, along with the women motivated by abortion and the crossed votes that this issue will also provoke.

ralston final prediction is that Harris will defeat Trump by just 0.3%, 48.5%-48.2%.

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