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American politics: Who will replace Mitch McConnell as Senate Republican leader? Remains deeply uncertain
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American politics: Who will replace Mitch McConnell as Senate Republican leader? Remains deeply uncertain

WASHINGTON– Senate Republicans vying to replace veteran leader Mitch McConnell have been crisscrossing the country to campaign and raise funds for their colleagues, making their closing arguments ahead of an important vote the week after the presidential election. But their proposals are mostly made behind closed doors, and most Republican senators have yet to say which lawmaker they support.

John Thune of South Dakota, McConnell’s current No. 2, and John Cornyn of Texas, who held that position before Thune, are the favorites in the Nov. 13 secret ballot to replace McConnell. The Kentucky senator will leave office in January after nearly two decades as leader. The winner could set the direction of the party for years to come and possibly become the next Senate majority leader if Republicans win enough seats in Tuesday’s elections.

The result is, for now, uncertain.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., addresses the chamber as Congress prepares to vote on a stopgap spending bill to avoid a government shutdown on Sept. 25, 2024.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., addresses the chamber as Congress prepares to vote on a stopgap spending bill to avoid a government shutdown on Sept. 25, 2024.

Photo AP/J. Scott Apple White

Only a few Republican senators have publicly endorsed a candidate. Many say they are still undecided. The third senator in the race, Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who is grappling with his own re-election bid, could act as a spoiler. Another candidate could still intervene.

In many ways, “the two Johns” are remarkably similar, making it difficult for their colleagues to choose. Both are well-liked and, like McConnell, lean toward the more traditional wing of the Republican Party. But both have also suggested they will try to put the McConnell era behind them with a more open approach.

“I’m trying to find a differentiation because they’re both great guys,” said Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who has worked closely with both.

The two men are also trying to distinguish themselves from McConnell by making clear that they support Donald Trump in this year’s presidential election. Like McConnell, both have clashed with Trump in the past, especially after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. But both Thune and Cornyn have spoken frequently with Trump in recent months, attending campaign events and visiting his home in Florida.

Whether Trump wins and endorses one of the contenders could become a determining factor.

“I don’t know what he’s going to do,” Cornyn said of Trump in September. “But this is obviously an election between senators, and I think that’s where the voters are.”

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, speaks to the media on Oct. 18, 2023, at the Capitol in Washington.

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, speaks to the media on Oct. 18, 2023, at the Capitol in Washington.

AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough, File

Some of the former president’s strongest allies in the Senate are urging him to stay out of it. Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin, who supports Thune, says he has been trying to dissuade Trump from endorsing him. Trump understands “the need to work with whoever the next leader is,” Mullin said.

Tillis suggested Trump’s endorsement could backfire.

“You have to be careful with the psychology of the Senate,” Tillis said. “We know each other very well and spend hours and hours together. It’s a pretty small club.”

Still, both Cornyn and Thune remain close to Trump. Cornyn met Trump on a trip to Texas in October and appeared at a rally in Nevada. Thune was at an event in August with Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance.

Thune, who said after the Jan. 6 attack that Trump’s efforts to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power were “inexcusable,” told The Associated Press over the summer that he considers their potential relationship professional. If both win the election, Thune said, “we have work to do.”

Meanwhile, Scott is an old friend of Trump and has positioned himself as a strong ally. Scott traveled to New York to support Trump during Trump’s hush money trial. Trump could endorse Scott in the race, potentially winning more votes for the Florida senator or giving him leverage to influence the race.

Senator Rick Scott, Republican of Florida. speaks during a town hall meeting, September 3, 2024, in Braselton, Georgia.

Senator Rick Scott, Republican of Florida. speaks during a town hall meeting, September 3, 2024, in Braselton, Georgia.

AP Photo/Mike Stewart, file

In addition to private meetings, both Thune and Cornyn have traveled across the country to fundraise and campaign for their fellow senators.

Thune has made more than two dozen campaign stops for Republican Senate candidates, and his advisers say he has raised more than $31 million for Senate races this campaign cycle, including a $4 million transfer to the Republican Senate campaign operation.

Cornyn has also scouted candidates and poured money into Texas elections. His aides emphasize his long history of fundraising for Republicans: more than $400 million during his 22 years in the Senate, his office says.

Politically, the two men are similar: They generally vote in line with the conference, but occasionally work with Democrats. Cornyn is a longtime member of the Senate Judiciary Committee and took a leadership role on bipartisan gun legislation two years ago. Thune worked across the aisle as former chairman of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee.

It’s unclear whether any of them could win support from the growing minority of Republican senators who fought McConnell in recent years as he defended aid to Ukraine and criticized Trump. Many in that group voted for Scott when he challenged McConnell after the 2022 election.

In a possible overture to that group, Cornyn has called for a conference vote to institute term limits for the Republican leader. “I think the Senate needs more involvement from my colleagues, and that includes the opportunity for any member to serve in a leadership role,” Cornyn posted on X in March.

Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, a member of the more conservative faction, said he hasn’t committed to the race but wants to know how they would push legislation and work with Trump if he is president. “I think some of this will come out after the election, when we know what we’re dealing with, we know what our caucus is going to be,” Hawley said.

Many in that group, including Scott and Utah Sen. Mike Lee, have pushed to take power away from leaders and empower individual senators. Lee has issued a series of demands from the candidates, but so far neither Cornyn nor Thune have shown interest in negotiating.

South Dakota Senator John Thune speaks in support of Ohio Republican US Senate candidate Bernie Moreno (not pictured) during a bus stop for the Ohio Senate race in Columbus.

South Dakota Senator John Thune speaks in support of Ohio Republican US Senate candidate Bernie Moreno (not pictured) during a bus stop for the Ohio Senate race in Columbus.

AP Photo/Joe Maiorana

But both have given signs that they hear the complaints.

Thune indicated in the AP interview that he is open to making changes to the leader’s role, but warned that he would not leave the position at the mercy of rank-and-file senators. He said he wanted to “empower our individual members or committees to do things through a regular order” and open up the amendment process, but “I’m not going to make wholesale changes that weaken the leader’s position to the point where it’s simply freedom for all.” -all.”

Tillis suggested in September that it would be a deal breaker for him if either candidate got involved in a deal.

“If you are willing to weaken your position to satisfy a few votes, then, in my opinion, you are not fit to be a leader,” Tillis said. “And I think most people think that way.”

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Associated Press writer Stephen Groves contributed to this report.

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