WASHINGTON– A disheartened electorate marks the end of the 2024 presidential campaign, with three-quarters of likely voters saying the country is headed in the wrong direction, six in 10 dissatisfied with their choice of candidates and a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president donald trump, ABC News reported.

Harris has 49% support among likely voters in this ABC News/Ipsos poll from last weekend, and Trump has 46%. Reflecting the country’s locked-in polarization, support for these candidates has not changed significantly since Harris took office to replace Joe Biden last summer.

Harris scored +2 in early October, +4 (a slight lead) last week and +3 in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with field work Ipsos. That slim three-point gap with Trump matches the average gap between Democrats and Republicans in the last eight presidential elections, of which Democrats won the popular vote in seven. In any case, the result leaves the field open to the whims of the Electoral College.

One dynamic behind these results is early voting. In data from Friday morning, 38% said they had already voted and opted for Harris by 56-38%. That compares to 62-33% among early voters last week, and in this group it is closer to what Democrats want.

See PDF for full results.

not happy

Satisfaction with the contest, the economy and the general direction of the country is low. Seventy-four percent of likely voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction — the most just before a presidential election since 2008. Half of Harris’s supporters say so, and nearly all, 98%, of Trump supporters.

Dissatisfaction partly reflects economic attitudes. Forty-two percent of likely voters say they are worse off financially than when Biden took office, compared to just 19% who are better off. The worst-case figure has been at or near its highest level in data since 1986 all year, reflecting the 40-year high inflation experienced under Biden.

Here the political divisions are especially deep and mark the connection between political and economic opinions. Seventy-eight percent of Trump supporters say their economic situation has worsened under Biden. Among Harris supporters, only 8% go there.

On the other hand, on another measure – satisfaction with the choice of the major parties’ candidates – partisans find a place to reach an agreement. Sixty percent are dissatisfied with the choice between Harris or Trump, including 61 percent of Harris supporters and 57 percent of Trump backers.

Good change/bad change

Dissatisfaction with the direction of the nation typically fuels support for change. That hurts Harris as she tries to differentiate herself from the Biden administration: 34 percent of likely voters think she would largely leave things as they are if elected. Of the rest, 35% think they would change things in a good way; 31%, in a bad way. (Among those hoping for Harris’ status quo, the race is a tight 48-45%, Trump-Harris.)

In Trump’s case, on the other hand, far fewer consider him clinging to the status quo: only 4% say he would leave things as they are. But more people think it would change things in a bad way, 51%, than in a good way, 45%.

Attributes

Harris outperforms Trump in personal favorability and outperforms him, albeit by single digits, in having the personality and temperament necessary to serve effectively as president.

He gets an even split in favorability, 48-48% among likely voters. Trump’s personal disfavor runs much deeper, viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 60%.

Another result eases the pain of Trump unfavorability: Among likely voters who view him and Harris unfavorably (13% of all likely voters), Trump leads widely in vote preference, 61-21%. (Among those who only view Trump unfavorably, not Harris, a minimal proportion (2%) support him anyway. Among those who only view Harris unfavorably, none support her.)

In terms of personality and temperament, 50% say Harris has what it takes to serve effectively, compared to 41% who say the same about Trump (these include 4% who say they both do); 12% say neither. As with favorability, Trump offsets Harris’ advantage by leading, 50-25%, among those who say neither has the personality and temperament to serve effectively. Furthermore, among those who think he does not have the personality and temperament to serve effectively, 11% support him anyway. (Harris is supported by 6% of those who say he does not have the right personality and temperament.)

running game

With such a close race, the campaigns’ final get-out-the-vote efforts may well make the difference. Here Harris maintains an advantage: among all adults, 37% say that her campaign has contacted them to ask for their vote, compared to 33% for Trump’s campaign. Among likely voters, that figure rises to 45% to 40%; and among likely voters in the seven battleground states, a slight 67% to 61%: a massive level of contact.

Additionally, Harris’ GOTV efforts appear to be better directed. Nationally, among likely voters who support her, 56% say her campaign has contacted them. Fewer Trump supporters, 49%, say his campaign has contacted them.

Groups

Estimates among likely Hispanic voters have remained stable in three of the last four ABC/Ipsos polls, in mid-September, early October and this one, with an average of 55-41%, Harris-Trump (54-39 % in this survey). Last week’s 64-34% among likely Hispanic voters was different, although close to the 2020 exit poll result, 65-32%, Biden-Trump.

In any case, the latest result shows no negative effects from a controversial joke by a comedian at a Trump rally last weekend. And it leaves open the question of where Hispanic voters land; Overperforming in this generally more Democratic group would be a blow to Trump, nationally and especially in the battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada.

The closest race among Hispanic voters in exit polls since 1976 was 58-40% in 2004; Getting back to that, much less improving on it, would be an important outcome for the Republican Party, which has desperately needed the support of racial and ethnic minority groups as they have grown in size.

The results are similar between Hispanic men and women, as has been the case previously. The change from last week is especially large among younger Hispanics, although the sample size is small.

Voting preferences among likely voters in other groups are similar to those in previous ABC News/Ipsos polls, allowing for sampling error, which is greater in smaller groups. Among them:

• • Harris, who has tried to appeal to disaffected Republicans, has 7% support among that group, while 3% of Democrats support Trump. Harris also gets the support of 11% of conservatives, compared to Trump’s 4% among liberals.
• Independents, who have gone with the winner in nine of the last 12 presidential elections, are now +5 in favor of Harris, 49-44%, although that is not a significant difference. Harris leads 55-37% among independent women, while Trump-Harris is close, 49-45%, among independent men.Harris is supported by 76% of Black men in these results (Biden won 79% of this group in 2020) and 87% of Black women.
• The race is close (a Trump +4 not significant) among white women, 50-46%, a group he won by 11 points in 2020. A Democrat has not won white women since 1996, although Al Gore came within one hair. in 2000. Trump leads by 13 points among white men, 54-41%.
• Harris has an especially wide lead among women ages 18 to 29, 69-29%. That compares to a non-significant Trump +5 among men that age, 49-44%.
• Harris maintains a lead among suburban women, 55-40%, while the race remains close among suburban men, 49-46%, Trump-Harris.
• The gender gap among all likely voters is 16 points: a non-significant Trump +5 among men, 50-45%, Harris +11 among women, 53-42%. That’s similar to where it’s been, as well as similar to the average (19 points) in exit polls since 1996.
• Trump has nearly identical leads among non-college white men (63-33%) and non-college white women (62-33%). Among all likely voters who do not have at least a four-year degree, Trump is +11 points (53-42%); among college graduates, Harris +22 (59-37%).
• In a group that is critical to Republican prospects, Trump leads 80-16% among white evangelical Protestants. Among all likely voters who are not white evangelical Protestants, Harris leads Trump, 55-40%.
• The seven battleground states, taken together, look like the nation: a 49-46% Harris-Trump race.

The results of this survey include the most prominent active minor party candidates in the states where they are on the ballot. Among all likely voters, Libertarian Chase Oliver gets 1% support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West less than half a percent each, and “someone else” 2%.

Methodology

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted online through the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel from October 29 to November 29. January 1, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 3,140 adults, including 2,267 likely voters. The partisan splits among all adults are 29-29-30%, Democrats-Republicans-Independents, and 33-34-29% among likely voters.

The results have a margin of sampling error 2 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample and for likely voters, and 5 points for likely voters in the battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin . Sampling error is not the only source of differences in surveys.

The poll was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associateswith sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details about the ABC News survey methodology here.