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    • Who is winning the presidential election right now? What do the polls predict?
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    Who is winning the presidential election right now? What do the polls predict?

    Sakege Posted on

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    Just five days before the elections, donald trump and Kamala Harris remain locked in a tight battle in Arizona, a swing state for the presidential election where a narrow margin could determine the outcome.

    Both candidates and their vice presidential running mates have campaigned combatively in Arizona in the weeks leading up to the election. They demonstrated, visited border cities and addressed diverse demographic groups.

    Trump and Harris The two visited the Phoenix metropolitan area on Thursday.indicating how important the Grand Canyon State is in this election. The vice president’s visit was for an electoral event with the musical group Los Tigres del Norte, while the former president was in the city to participate in a live show with Tucker Carlson.

    Polls and odds have shown a shift in momentum and how close the presidential race has become in recent months. But who is most likely to win the battle in Arizona and the nation? Could the running game help tip the balance?

    This is what center, odd and historians we are saying as we approach Election Day on Tuesday, November 5th.

    Who leads the polls in the United States?

    Polls and odds change constantly, but here’s where each candidate stood at 7:30 a.m. on November 1, 2024:

    • ABC News 538 Project shows Harris leading national polls with 48% to Trump with 46.8%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by up to 4 percentage points, although more recent polls show them much closer.
    • 270towin shows Harris leading national polls by 1.2% over Trump.
    • realclear survey shows that the betting odds are in favor of Trump with a spread of +0.3.

    Further: Is Arizona a swing state in the 2024 presidential election? This is what you should know

    Who is leading in the polls in Arizona?

    Trump has had a growing lead over Harris in most Arizona polls over the past few weeks, but polls show the race is still incredibly close in the battleground state.

    Here is where each candidate was at 7:30 a.m. on November 1, 2024:

    • ABC News 538 Project shows Trump leading Harris in the Arizona polls by 2.3% over Harris.
    • 270towin shows Trump leading in Arizona polls with 1.8% over Harris.
    • realclear survey shows that the betting odds to win Arizona are in favor of Trump with a spread of +2.3.

    The historian who predicted 9 out of 10 elections gives his opinion

    Alan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, DC. He earned a PhD from Harvard, specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.

    He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last ten presidential elections and has confirmed his prediction of which candidate will win back the White House.

    This year, the predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win.

    How accurate have the election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?

    He betting favorite only has lost twice since 1866according to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.

    He survey history It is more challenging since different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often obtain larger margins of error.

    According to Pew researchConfidence in public opinion polls has been shaken due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

    In both general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.

    Arizona Republic reporters Stephanie Murray and Zach Bradshaw and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this story.

    Sakege
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