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New Economist/YouGov presidential election poll: Harris with slight lead
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New Economist/YouGov presidential election poll: Harris with slight lead

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Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by more than a percentage point in a new Economist/YouGov poll on Wednesdaywhich also indicates a close race.

The survey of 1,446 registered voters showed that 47% of registered voters planned to vote for Harris or had already voted for her, while 46% indicated they supported Trump. Due to rounding, the difference is closer to two percentage points, according to the survey. Harris’ lead among registered voters is within the poll’s margin of error (±3.4 percentage points).

The survey was carried out from October 26 to 29 and is the final result Economist/YouGov survey planned before the elections.

“For a large share of voters, their election is over: 40% say they have already voted by mail or absentee or in person at a polling station – slightly more than the 37% of registered voters who say they will cast their ballot. vote. at the polls on election day,” the results state. The poll also shows that those who plan to vote in person favor Trump, while those who vote by mail favor Harris.

Things to keep in mind about surveys

The margin of error of a survey describes how accurately we can count on the survey results to be representative of the entire population.

When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to Pew Research Center.

Pew also has found that most pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.

National polls typically indicate where candidates stand in the popular vote, but the election will likely be decided by seven swing states due to the Electoral college system. A recent Bloomberg News/Morning Check The poll of swing states also indicates that the candidates are tied.

Kinsey Crowley is a current affairs reporter at USA TODAY. Contact her at [email protected] and follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.