Maps from the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) show the predicted impact of Hurricane Rafael in the United States as the storm churns in the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba on Wednesday night as a Category 3 hurricane. Its wind speeds have since fallen to 100 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane as it begins a long journey across the Gulf. The latest forecasts anticipate that Rafael will move west, maintaining hurricane strength until Saturday morning, when it will likely weaken into a tropical storm.

The forecast is a change from earlier in the week, when forecasters anticipated Rafael would target Louisiana. The trail of the storm then moved to Texas, and has since moved further south, making it unlikely that the storm will make direct landfall in the US, given current forecasts.

Tropical Storm Warnings for the Florida Keys

However, the indirect impacts have already begun. Tropical storm conditions were expected in the Florida Keys on Wednesday night, with threats of coastal flooding and heavy rain. The warnings were lifted Thursday morning, the NWS office in Key West said, although occasional storms were still expected throughout Thursday.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Florida coastal waters, and a small craft advisory warns boaters not to venture into the waters around the Florida Keys.

US beaches expect dangerous rip currents

Alabama and the Florida panhandle are expecting dangerous ocean conditions and rip currents caused by the storm, NWS meteorologist David Reese said. news week. A coastal hazard message is in effect for coastal beaches near Mobile, Alabama, and Tallahassee, Florida, and will remain in effect through the weekend. Rip currents and dangerous waves could cause beaches to close over the weekend, and Reese advised beachgoers to pay attention to beach flags to indicate any closures.

“The waves generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days,” the NHC warned. “These surges are likely to cause life-threatening waves that tear apart current conditions.”

Wind-related impact in the US

There is also a slight risk of tropical storm force winds in some coastal areas, the NHC warned. An NHC map showed a low chance that the Louisiana coast and a swath of Texas could experience tropical storm-force winds, which occur when winds exceed 39 mph.

“Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next weekend,” the NHC said. “Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.”

It is unclear if any rain associated with the storm will reach the US, other than what has already fallen in the Florida Keys. The latest NHC precipitation maps warn of additional rain over Cuba on Thursday and the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend.