At this point, Harris is approximately 67M (NY Times data), but about 45% of California votes are not yet included in that count, plus 30% of Oregon votes, 35% of Washington votes, 35% of Washington votes of Arizona and a little more in other states. Given that 54% of the California votes that have been counted so far are split (5.6 million for Harris and 3.9 million for Trump), that suggests the remaining 46% will add about 4.8 million to the count. Harris and approximately 3.3 million to Trump.

I looked at the NY Times map and entered data for states that weren’t listed as >95% reporting, and projecting from the current totals, it looks like Harris will probably get about 9 million more, for a total of about 76 millions. . Trump’s popular vote will also grow considerably beyond its current 72 million, to approximately 79 million. That expected split (76 million to 79 million) could be compared to the final results of 2020, which favored Biden by 81 million to 74 million; So it looks like we’ll ultimately see a likely swing of about 5 million votes, give or take a million, I guess.

I mention this because I’ve been seeing people. suggestion that the drop from Biden’s 81 million to Harris’s 67 million is very suspicious. But again, that doesn’t make much sense, because it’s comparing the final 2020 totals to the 2024 totals, which are far from final.

Of course, I would love to see more reliable estimates than my rather rough calculations. UPDATE: The University of Florida Election Laboratory estimates that 158.5 million votes were counted, suggesting 19.5 million votes remain to be counted; That’s higher than my estimate of 16 million remaining, but still consistent with the general point that the current totals are far from final.