Many fans believed that the 2024 NFL campaign would be a restart or rebuild year for the Buffalo Bills, as several key players from past seasons were released. The media was ready to crown the Miami Dolphins or New York Jets division champions and even Super Bowl bound during the offseason. Nine weeks into the season, we have a very different reality. He Invoices They’re taking the division, and meanwhile, the Dolphins and Jets have a combined five wins.

We are also starting to see a gap between the two conferences. The AFC has only seven teams with a record of .500 or better, while the NFC has ten such teams. The NFC looks to be the best conference this year and they might have the best team in the NFL with the Detroit Lions. According to our analytical rankings, when including all 32 teams, the Lions are number one by a wide margin. But this ranking isn’t about the NFL, so let’s get into the AFC poll.

For a little context on how these rankings were derived: It’s important to understand that they are not a subjective team ranking. Nine metrics are used to calculate a singular value for each team. The metrics are:

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The Patriots had a chance to win a game, but allowed the Titans to get their second win of the season. Still, rookie quarterback Drake Maye has played well, and it looks like New England might have its playmaker of the future. Outside of Maye, however, they don’t have much else going for them. They rank 31st in offensive DVOA and 30th in defensive DVOA.

The Raiders rank in the 30s in four of nine categories, including last in average turnover differential. They continue to accumulate losses, losing their seventh of the year against the Bengals. When the trade deadline passed, the Raiders weren’t sellers, which is surprising, but we may never know if they seriously considered trading Maxx Crosby. Regardless, this team will be in the hunt for the first pick in next year’s draft.

Rumors swirled around a potential trade for Myles Garrett, but ultimately he remained in Cleveland. The Browns’ defense has been average to good, ranking as high as 10th in defensive success rate. However, the offense is terrible, ranking 32nd in both offensive success rate and DVOA. Cleveland lost its seventh game of the year in Week 9, falling to the Los Angeles Chargers.

You have to imagine the Jaguars will focus all of their offseason efforts on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 32nd in EPA per play and 31st in DVOA. Jacksonville lost another last week, this time losing one to the Eagles. Last year, the Jaguars started the season 6-2 but struggled in the second half and finished 9-8. This season they have started badly and it doesn’t seem like they are going to change the situation anytime soon.

As mentioned above, the Dolphins were division favorites entering the season, but they have failed tremendously. Even with Tua Tagovailoa back behind center, the Dolphins still haven’t been able to get out of the loss column. Tagovailoa has played very well since his return, but the results remain the same. Miami ranks 26th in offensive DVOA and 28th in defensive DVOA. The offensive numbers should start to increase with their starting quarterback back, but it’s too little, too late.

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The Titans finally got their second win this season, defeating the Patriots, 20-17 in Week 9. Their defense is highly ranked, ranking No. 2 in defensive success rate, 11th in EPA and ninth in DVOA . The offense is terrible and the team is struggling in the turnover department, ranking 31st in average turnover differential.

The Bengals started the year 1-4, but have won three of their last four. They are fighting to get back into the playoff race, but it is still an uphill battle. Defense continues to be an issue and if Cincinnati wants to advance in the second half, it will have to do so on the strength of its offense. The defense ranks 27th in EPA, 30th in success rate and 25th in DVOA.

The Colts made one change at quarterback, starting Joe Flacco over Anthony Richardson; However, they were only able to score 13 points in the loss to the Vikings. Indianapolis has a very good defensive line and that has helped them rank 12th in defensive EPA and 13th in success rate. However, they rank only 20th in DVOA, and offensive DVOA ranks 19th. The Colts are good enough to upset real contenders, but they won’t do much more than that in 2024.

Are the Jets back? Not likely, but they got their third win of the year and we’ve seen this movie before. They play well and win a game, then fail the next week and look terrible. The analyzes also show that inconsistency, placing it in the middle of the pack in almost all categories.

The Texans desperately need their star receiver back on the field. No, I’m not talking about Stefon Diggs, but Nico Collins. Collins has risen to the top of the NFL in terms of receivers, and CJ Stroud and the Texans offense have struggled without him. They rank 20th in EPA, 23rd in DVOA, and 25th in success rate. On the other hand, their defense ranks first in success rate.

The Broncos are one of three AFC West teams ranked in the top six of our rankings. Bo Nix has played better lately, but the offense is still on the back foot. Denver’s defense has been stellar, ranking first in EPA, third in success rate, and seventh in DVOA. If Nix can continue to develop as the season progresses and the offense continues to improve, the Broncos could be a bothersome team in the playoffs.

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One week the Ravens are losing to the Jameis Winston-led Browns, the next week they defeat the Broncos, who we were praising, 41-10. But this is also why the Ravens are currently fifth in the AFC with three losses. When this team is on, it’s a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but its inconsistency has been a problem for years, especially in the playoffs. That said, the Ravens offense ranks second in both EPA and success rate, and first in DVOA.

Who would have thought the Chargers would go 5-3 after letting Mike Williams and Keenan Allen leave Los Angeles? The Chargers are currently in second place in the division, but have already lost to the Chiefs. They’ll get another chance the first week of December, but in the meantime, they’re looking at the Chiefs. Like the Broncos, the Chargers’ defense leads them, ranking second in EPA, fourth in success rate, and sixth in DVOA.

The Chiefs remain undefeated, but have yet to claim the top spot in our rankings; in fact, they have fallen one place this week. It took them overtime to beat the Bucs, who were without star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. It’s games like this that keep the Chiefs out of first place despite wins. They rank in the top ten in most categories, but only 19th in defensive success rate and 25th in average turnover differential.

The Steelers’ move for Russell Wilson came with questions from people outside the Steelers organization; However, they have yet to lose a game to Wilson and have moved up the standings, taking second place. The violation ranks 13th in EPA, 19th in success rate, and 20th in DVOA. The defense is already stellar, and if the offense, now with receiver Mike Williams, continues its upward trajectory, the Steelers could make some noise in the playoffs.

That’s seven consecutive weeks in which the Bills have held first place. Since we started doing these rankings, they have been the number one team in the AFC. However, there are some important concerns about the defensive sideparticularly with the run defenseand this is starting to show in the team’s DVOA, where they rank 12th. They are still in the top ten in every other category, including third in Offensive EPA, third in turnover differential, and fourth in DVOA offensive.

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