Russia’s shadow war against the West continues to escalate rapidly. On Monday, Poland laid out the Kremlin’s plans to export camouflaged explosives to Great Britain and the EU. Once these packages landed on European soil, they would transit by air to the United States and Canada, causing a mid-flight mass casualty event.

Russia has furiously denied Poland’s accusations, but the plan outlined by Polish officials may have already taken root. On July 22, a device mysteriously exploded at a DHL warehouse in Minworth, near Birmingham. This incident followed a similar detonation at a DHL warehouse in Leipzig, Germany. Both incidents are being investigated as Russian-sponsored arson attacks.

Why does Russia supposedly use incendiary attacks like hybrid warfare tool? The story begins with the breakdown of relations between Russia and the West that followed Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and invasion of Donbass. In October 2014, an explosion at a warehouse in the Czech Republic destroyed 50 tons of ammunition and killed two bystanders. In December, a second explosion occurred at the same facilities and 50 tons of ammunition detonated. In the end, GRU agents were involved in these attacks.

The story then progresses to the Large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022when more than 600 Russian diplomats were expelled from European embassies. Many of them were intelligence officers using diplomatic cover.

These expulsions restricted Russia’s ability to conduct traditional espionage and forced it to rely more on criminal networks and lone wolf assets. In June, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, BfV, exposed this tactic. To partially compensate for the loss of its covert spies, Russia paid two German citizens €400,000 each to commit acts of high treason.

Ukraine acquisition of F-16 fighter jetsthe use of NATO-class weaponry against Russian targets and the incursion into the Kursk region of western Russia added kerosene to the flames.

As empty threats of nuclear Armageddon and attacks on NATO arms supply routes to Ukraine lose their potency, Russia is using terrorism as a deterrent tool. One of his first acts was hire a 20 year old Leicestershire man Dylan Earl will carry out an arson attack on a Ukrainian-owned warehouse in east London in March. It was only a similar attack on an Ikea store in Vilnius, Lithuania in May and subsequent warnings from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk about foreign instigation that made Europe take notice.

While demolishing Russian spy networks through regular arrests and public warnings about Russia’s malign activities are positive steps, much more needs to be done. In April 2021, former MI6 chief John Sawers estimated that only 10 per cent of Russia’s spy operations in Britain had been discovered. Belgian and Latvian officials have issued similar warnings in recent months.

Accused russian spies They still operate in European embassies. One example is the Russian chargé d’affaires in Brussels, Kirill Logvinov, who liaises with European officials in plain sight. Due to its dependence on Russian nuclear energy, Hungary has expedited the arrival of Russian citizens to its territory. This exposes the entire Schengen area to espionage and sabotage.

The West needs to shout Russia’s hybrid war for what it is: state-sponsored terrorism. Unity and urgency must define the West’s response to this threat. However, we still bury our heads in the sand. What will wake us up?

Dr Samuel Ramani is an Associate Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute.

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