Big Ten football begins this weekend when No. 3 Ohio State returns home against Purdue. Let’s take a look at the latest matchup predictions from an expert model that simulates games.

Ohio State improved to 7-1 on the year after a spectacular win at Penn State and cemented its place near the top of the Big Ten pecking order as playoff selection approaches.

Purdue has no such luck, going 0-5 in Big Ten play and ranking 119th in scoring offense while losing seven straight games dating to the season opener.

Heading into this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, using key analytics from both teams and picking winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

It’s safe to say the models are siding with the Buckeyes over the Boilermakers this week.

Ohio State is the big local favorite and wins by an overwhelming majority. 99 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the confrontation.

That leaves Purdue as the presumptive winner in the rest. 1 percent from sims.

How does that translate into a projected margin of victory for the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 41.2 points better than Purdue on the same field in the current makeup of both teams, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, it would be more than enough to cover the differential.

This is because the state of Ohio is a 38.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

A slight majority of bettors expect the Boilermakers to keep things closer against the Buckeyes, according to the latest consensus picks for the game.

Purdue is getting 55 percent of betting to win outright in an upset or, more likely, to keep the spread within the generous points margin.

The other 45 percent The bettors expect Ohio State to win the game and cover the large margin.

Ohio State ranks second among the Big Ten teams with a 91.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

That model gives the Buckeyes a total win prediction of 11 games this season.

Purdue is basically done, projected to win 1.2 games and mathematically disqualified from being eligible for a bowl.

College football rankings from the Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule .

Teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (62)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. State of Pennsylvania
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. L.S.U.
15. Texas A&M
16. old miss
17. Iowa State
18. Army
19. Clemson
20. Washington State
21. Colorado
22. Kansas State
23. pittsburgh
24. Vanderbilt
25. louisville

When: Saturday, November 9
Time: 12 pm Eastern Time
Television: Fox network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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