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Here’s who wins in the latest presidential polls between Trump and Harris: as Nate Silver and 538 release their final predictions

Sakege November 5, 2024

Top line

Vice President Kamala Harris edged out former President Donald Trump by the narrowest of margins in the final presidential forecasts from polling guru Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight shortly after midnight Tuesday, although both projections showed the race for the White House still a statistical tie on election day. like both candidates survey numbers in key swing states remained deadlocked.

Kamala Harris shakes hands with Donald Trump during a presidential debate in Philadelphia on … (+) September 10.

AFP via Getty Images

Key facts

Silver released his final forecast after running 80,000 simulations of the race based on polling data and finding that Harris had a 50.015% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 49.985% (effectively a tie), after a minor comeback of sorts by the Democrat, who lost between 44% and 55% in the elections. beginning of November.

five thirty eight too released his final prediction on the winner of the presidential race, giving Harris the smallest lead with about a 50% chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 49%.

Silver and FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts estimate the probability of either candidate winning and are independent of polls, which estimate how many votes each candidate will get, but many national and swing-state polls also remain essentially tied.

Harris leads Trump 49% to 48% among likely voters in latest report HarrisX/Forbes Pollwhich was taken between Wednesday and Friday and has a margin of error of one point, and has risen between 50% and 48% in a Ipsos survey It also comes out on Monday.

The widely followed Times/Siena poll released late last month represented a decline in support for Harris since the newspaper’s previous poll in early October showed her with a 49% to 46% lead over Trump, and the newspaper He called the results “not encouraging” for Harris, as Democrats won the popular vote in recent elections even as they lost the White House.

Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in a CNBC Poll of registered voters published on October 24 (margin of error 3.1), and has a lead of 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal survey of registered voters taken on October 23 (margin of error 2.5), a change in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris directed 47% to 45% in a Journal poll.

Harris erased Trump’s lead over Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her lead has declined over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight. weighted average of the surveys.

Important Reminder: Presidential Polls Have Frequently Been Wrong

And there is a lot of speculation about how they got it wrong this year and who could benefit from it. read all about it in this story.

big number

1.2 points. That’s Harris’s average lead over Trump at FiveThirtyEight survey average. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics survey average shows Harris up by 0.1, and Nate Silver has Harris up one point on his Silver Bulletin Forecast.

How does Harris perform against Trump in swing states?

Harris leads Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvaniaand Trump leads North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Snowfallaccording to FiveThirtyEight poll averages. That means Harris would win the electoral college if polls from all swing states are completely accurate, but many of the seven swing states, including crucial Pennsylvania, have margins of less than one percentage point.

Surprising fact

a survey of NBC News published on September 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is narrowing. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, which was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, showed 54% supporting Harris compared to 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they I wasn’t sure who I would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but remains significantly smaller than the leads Democratic candidates have had in the past, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polls and a 50 points in the 2016 polls. The poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

How did the debate affect the polls?

Pre-debate polls found Harris’s poll gains appeared to be stalling, including an NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken from September 3 to 5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that a majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly impact the race between the two. A New York Times/Siena survey of Likely Voters released on September 19 found that a majority of voters across all demographic groups gave positive reviews of Harris’ performance in the September 10 debate, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared with 40% saying the same about Trump. Harris was up 52% to 46% among likely voters and 51% to 47% among registered voters in a ABC News/Ipsos poll days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, essentially unchanged from his six-point lead with likely voters in end of august and early august ABC/Ipsos polls—although 63% of Americans He said Harris won. the debate.

Key background

Biden abandoned from the race on July 21 after resisting calls within his own party for weeks to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately supported She and Harris announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call vote before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his vice presidential nominee. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in the polls is accompanied by a surge in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has almost doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% today, while enthusiasm among Republicans has remained stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University study. survey published on August 14.