close
close

Ourladyoftheassumptionparish

Part – Newstatenabenn

Three things to keep in mind during the release of college football playoff rankings
patheur

Three things to keep in mind during the release of college football playoff rankings

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – On Tuesday, a decision that will affect the future of Hoosiers everywhere will finally be revealed to a waiting world.

No, not the election day results. We’re talking about the first college football playoff rankings. The rankings will be revealed at 7 pm ET and will air on ESPN.

For the first time, this will be a must-see for Indiana football fans. Indiana’s unprecedented 9-0 start, plus the expanded 12-team field, has put the Hoosiers right in the middle of the playoff discussion.

Indiana is ranked No. 8 in the Associated Press poll released Sunday, but that ranking has no bearing on the CFP’s rankings. CFP rankings are decided by a committee, similar to the NCAA basketball tournament selection committee.

Here are some basic rules you should know about how the field is compiled:

– The five highest-rated conference champions take the field. Four of them will advance to the quarterfinals. The Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 champions are virtually certain to get those four byes.

– The other seven teams are at-large picks from all FBS and there is no limit to how many teams can be chosen per conference. Since the fifth conference champion will likely come from a spot in the standings below the No. 11 seed, in effect, the top 11 in the standings enter the field.

– The eight teams that do not receive byes play the first round on the campus grounds. The No. 5-8 seeds will host those games.

This is how the field is filled. These are the principles the CFP Selection Committee uses to select and seed general teams:

“The committee will select teams using a process that distinguishes between comparable teams by considering:

– Schedule strength

– Head to head competition

– Comparative results of common opponents (without incentivizing the margin of victory)

– Other relevant factors such as the unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or will likely affect its performance in the postseason.

The committee is made up of 13 coaches, student-athletes, university administrators and journalists.

Here’s how the voting process works, according to the CFP Selection Committee voting process:

– Each committee member selects their own 30 best teams in the country. Teams listed with three or more members remain under consideration. At the end of any round of voting, teams can be added if three or more committee members wish to add them.

– Each member lists the top six teams. The six teams receiving the most votes make up the group for the first qualifying step, known as “roll call.”

– In the first qualifying step, each member will rank those six teams, assigning one point to the first place vote and so on. Member rankings will be added and the three teams with the lowest point total will be the top three ranked teams. This process is repeated until 25 teams are classified.

From there, the expected conference champions are identified for the top four finishers.

The CFP quarterfinals will be played in the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl and Peach Bowl. When possible, teams are assigned to playoff quarterfinal games at traditional bowl sites that are more closely identified with the conferences in which they play. So if Oregon were the number one seed, it would be assigned to the Rose Bowl.

After that, teams 5-12 are placed in order. There is no provision preventing conference-versus-conference matchups in the first round. So in theory, Indiana could play Penn State in a first-round game.

There is no metric that the committee uses for selection. All types of data are available, but it is a subjective decision by each committee member.

Do you have all that? It is a subjective process as are all committee processes. Here are some things to look for when the rankings are revealed:

1. How much value is being undefeated?

Tyrique Tucker

Indiana’s Tyrique Tucker (95) celebrates in front of the student section after Indiana’s football game against Washington at Memorial Stadium on Oct. 26, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This may seem like a silly question. Why wouldn’t there be value in being undefeated?

Indiana is one of four Power Four conference teams that has an undefeated record. One of them, Oregon, is from the Big Ten, and the Hoosiers and Ducks won’t face each other unless they play in the Big Ten championship game. The other two undefeated are Miami of the ACC and BYU of the Big 12.

While Oregon is ranked first in the Associated Press poll, there are one-loss teams that are given more value in the AP and coaches’ polls than the other undefeated teams. No. 2 Georgia and No. 3 Ohio State are one-loss teams ahead of Miami, BYU and Indiana.

It will be interesting to see how the College Football Playoff committee analyzes the resumes of undefeated teams. Anyone can choose their own criteria, but what will the committee care about most?

Will it be general statistical excellence? Will it be a margin of victory? Is it what teams you have played against? For large conferences, the need to analyze schedule intensity in and out of conference is more important than ever.

No one should assume that an undefeated record grants an automatic berth to a playoff berth. If you have any doubts, head to Tallahassee and ask a Florida State fan how the committee treats undefeated teams that the committee perceives as flawed.

2. How will the selection committee assess the strength of the schedule?

mikail camara

Indiana’s Mikail Kamara (6) catches Western Illinois’ Nathan Lamb (12) during Indiana’s football game against Western Illinois at Memorial Stadium on Friday, Sept. 6, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

As mentioned above, the strength of the schedule deserves its own space given that Indiana is very vulnerable in this regard.

According to ESPN, Indiana’s current schedule is 103rd out of 134 FBS schools, and remains the worst of any Power Four conference school. The closest CFP contender to Indiana in terms of schedule ranking is Iowa State at No. 83. Beyond that, Notre Dame is next at No. 75.

If strength of schedule is the number one protocol on committee members’ minds, as indicated, Indiana’s weak SOS number will sink the Hoosiers, but to what extent?

What will be interesting is how the committee accounts for controllable versus non-controllable factors.

For example, Indiana has no control over its Big Ten roster. Nebraska and Washington are the only winning Big Ten teams the Hoosiers have faced so far, but it’s not Indiana’s fault that it’s had a problem when it comes to having favorable Big Ten opponents on its schedule. Does the commission take this into account?

On the other side of the coin, Power Four schools have complete control over their non-conference rosters. Indiana’s trio of Florida International, Western Illinois and Charlotte pale in comparison to nearly all the competitors Indiana has in the playoff selection race.

Indiana’s situation is worse given that Indiana eliminated Louisville (now a top 25 team) to play Western Illinois. It was a decision made in 2023, but it could have a big impact in 2024. The committee will be aware of the fact that Indiana deliberately weakened its schedule. Turning your back on Curt Cignetti (he was not part of that decision) is not an outcome that should be taken for granted.

3. What does the Committee think about the Big Ten as a whole?

Drew Allar

Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Cody Simon (0) tackles Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) during the second half of the NCAA football game at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania , on Saturday, November 2, 2024. Ohio State won 20-13. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In response to claims about a weak schedule, some Indiana fans have responded that a team like Penn State hasn’t beaten a currently ranked team, so why should the Hoosiers be treated worse than the Nittany Lions?

This is not the flexibility people might think it would be.

At first glance, the Big Ten appears to be in great shape to have up to four teams in the 12-team field. Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana are all in the top 10 in the polls.

However, the committee won’t see it that way. Of those four teams, Ohio State will be the only one guaranteed to have played the other three by the end of the season. The Buckeyes’ schedule will be unquestionable, but what about the others? How are the Big Ten boosting or holding back teams?

Ten teams are .500 or better in the Big Ten. Oregon has played or will play five of them, with a big win over Ohio State as its signature victory.

Penn State has played or will play five, although Penn State lost its signature game to Ohio State. Indiana has played or will play four of those schools. The Hoosiers’ fate likely hinges on their outcome at Ohio State on Nov. 23.

The committee can predict what it might think will happen, or it could assign ratings about what happened. Since it’s just the first ranking of the season, it will be fascinating how the committee views those lower-tier Big Ten wins compared to similar ones from other conferences.

The good news for Indiana and the Big Ten contenders? None of the other conferences have been released to demonstrate their superiority either. The largest conferences have created quite a few remnants in the middle of each league. How does the committee solve all that?

The SEC’s perceived best non-conference win was Texas’ win at Michigan, but that has been diminished by the Wolverines’ fall from grace. Georgia also beat Clemson, but the Tigers were humiliated at home by Louisville on Saturday.

In fact, the SEC could be hurt by the fact that one of its contenders, LSU, lost on a neutral field to Southern California, currently 2-5 in the Big Ten.

The ACC has Miami and possibly SMU, but two of its potential teams, Clemson and Pittsburgh, suffered damaging losses on Saturday. The Big 12 has BYU, which handily defeated both SMU and Kansas State, but little else. Iowa State and Kansas State suffered damaging losses over the weekend.

Notre Dame, an independent city, is also difficult to analyze. A road win at Texas A&M is impressive, but a home loss to Northern Illinois (now 1-3 in the Mid-American Conference) is hard to explain.