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    • Analysis of maps of Donald Trump’s electoral victories in 2024 for Kentucky
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    Analysis of maps of Donald Trump’s electoral victories in 2024 for Kentucky

    Sakege Posted on

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    The Bluegrass State has 120 counties, and when you compare their results four years ago to On election day this year.Former President Donald Trump obtained a better percentage of votes in each and every one of them.

    Jump when you see it on the map, Western Kentucky University said politics professor Jeffrey Budziak. But when you look at the bigger pictureIt makes more sense, he added. And that’s because Kentucky’s shift to the right looks a lot like that of almost every other state.

    “He just achieved growth everywhere,” Budziak said. “The fact that he also grew up in Kentucky shouldn’t be too surprising.”

    That growth will return Trump to the White House. Vice President Kamala Harris, his Democratic opponent, conceded on Wednesday and promised a peaceful transfer of powerafter a riot at the US Capitol four years ago following Trump’s 2020 defeat disrupted that process.

    He wasn’t the only Republican to celebrate, either. Republicans in Frankfort maintained its 80-20 lead over Democrats in the House, winning a seat in Lexington and losing another nearby seat to a candidate running for the first time. They will also maintain a strong majority in the Kentucky Senate.

    It was “a really good political night for Republicans here in the state and nationally.” Kentucky Senate President Robert Stivers said the morning after the election, and that will help shape the state and the nation for years to come.

    He expects a Republican candidate to win the state’s U.S. Senate race in 2026 — “it will be Sen. (Mitch) McConnell or a Republican replacement for Sen. McConnell” — and to win the next gubernatorial race, when term-limited Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear term ends in 2027.

    “The direction is pretty clear,” Stivers told reporters. “This is demonstrated both by the performance of our constitutional offices at the state level, as well as by our legislative numbers and voting at the federal level.”

    At his weekly press conference Thursday, Beshear acknowledged Trump’s “loose” victory. But he argued that the fact that Democrats kept their seven seats in the state Senate and 20 seats in the House of Representatives (although minority chairwoman Cherlynn Stevenson was ousted) showed that Kentuckians “expect us to work together and continue doing things.”

    Five conclusions: Kentucky’s 2024 elections include GOP gains and a ‘school choice’ referendum

    Meanwhile, under another Trump presidency, Stivers predicted, investments in coal, natural gas and “more U.S.-type energy feedstocks” are expected, along with an offensive on the U.S. border with Mexico and other issues the former president emphasized in his speech. last campaign. Trump relied on the economy and inflation, Stivers added, and it paid off.

    “People are worried about the economy,” he said. “The cost of food has gone up, the cost of fuel has gone up, the cost of paying the mortgage has gone up, and people are talking at the polls out of their pockets. That’s where I think you’ve seen the message that has resonated, and it’s resonated in strongly blue states, not just red ones.

    The economy wasn’t the only reason Trump won, Budziak said, but it was clearly a “huge factor,” even though inflation has fallen significantly from its peak two years ago. Ruling parties around the world have lost seats in this year’s elections, and inflation was an international problem for economies, he said: “I don’t think you can write any story about this election without talking about voter dissatisfaction. with economic conditions”.

    Meanwhile, Democrats did not have the same level of support they have seen in recent years in Kentucky. Voter turnout in areas critical to the party lagged.

    Jefferson County, the only region in the state to have elected a Democrat to Congress in US Representative Morgan McGarveyIt had an electoral participation this year of 56.7%. In 2020, that figure was 61.4%, a change of almost 31,000 voters. It was the same story in Fayette County: The Lexington house had a 57% voter turnout this year after reporting a 61.5% turnout in 2020, a difference that exceeded 13,000 voters.

    Statewide, voter turnout fell from 60.3% in 2020 to 58.8% this year, a drop of about 62,000 voters. Jefferson and Fayette counties, the only two in the state where Harris won, were responsible for just over 70% of that total.

    In Louisville’s South End, where the GOP has a larger presence, Republicans notched three victories in Metro Council elections, including two that unseated a pair of longtime Democratic chamber members. The party now controls 12 of 26 seats.

    Republican Councilman Scott Reed sees the progress as a sign from the party “Actually, I can go on the offensive for a change.” Council Speaker Markus Winkler, a Democrat, praised the chamber’s nonpartisan history but speculated that national issues like the economy played a role in his party’s losses, along with local issues like crime in Louisville and frustration with the merger of the city and county in 2003.

    “Slightly diminished Democratic enthusiasm” this year may have hurt voter turnout, Budziak said, but it’s hard to say for sure based on a single case study. And the 2020 elections, celebrated during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic and with a much greater emphasis on early and absentee voting, it is a difficult data point to use compared to another election.

    But in the end, Budziak said, Trump’s county-by-county results in Kentucky show a clear picture of his support, and we are not alone.

    “Trump surpassed his 2020 totals in basically every demographic,” he said. “They are part of a broader trend in which Trump really improved everywhere.”

    Reporter Eleanor McCrary contributed. Contact Lucas Aulbach at [email protected].

    Sakege
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