The Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts will meet in an AFC battle in Week 10.

The Bills are firmly sitting in first place in the AFC East at 7-2, good for the No. 2 seed in the conference. They will face the Colts, who are currently the first team out of the No. 8 seed. Indianapolis has a chance to return to a playoff berth with an upset victory on Sunday.

Let’s dive into the latest game odds and then I’ll give my final score prediction.

Via fees FanDuel Sports Betting

Spread

money line

Total

The Bills opened as 5-point favorites in this AFC matchup, but the line has since moved down a half-point to Bills -4.5. The match total has dropped half a point, from 47.0 to 46.5.

In this week’s edition of “On the way to 272 bets“, I wrote about why I’m taking the Colts to cover the spread as the home underdogs:

The Colts are a much different team with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Even in last week’s loss to the Vikings, they still looked like a more diverse offense with Flacco’s ability to throw the ball.

This week they host the Bills, who have had some problems playing on the road this season. The Bills have -0.7 net yards per play on the road this season. Their average scoring margin also drops from +17.5 to +3.4.

If the Colts can run the ball successfully, which they should be able to do against a defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry, they can stay in this game and cover the spread as home underdogs.

As for the total, I’ll take the UNDER. I expect both teams to largely stick to the running game, which will keep the clock ticking and limit explosive plays down the field. If Indianapolis sticks to that game plan, there’s a chance they can not only cover the spread, but also win by surprise.

Final Result Prediction: Bill 21, Colts 24

Odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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