A notable SEC matchup begins this weekend when No. 5 Texas returns home against conference rival Florida on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Florida comes into the game fresh off the announcement that head coach Billy Napier will stay, putting to rest all rumors about his seemingly imminent firing after starting 4-4 ​​overall, but receives a temporary vote of confidence from the school . looking ahead to next season.

Texas is in postseason mode, debuting at No. 5 in the first-ever College Football Playoff rankings but just outside the coveted top-four spot, and needs to not only win but also get outside help to earn a bye in the first round.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Longhorns and Gators meet in this SEC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Florida and Texas stack up in this Week 11 college football game.

As expected, the models side with the Longhorns over the Gators in this matchup.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Florida by a projected score of 37 to 18 and will win the game by a expected margin of 19.6 points.

The model gives the Longhorns a strong 89 percent chance of absolute victory over the Gators.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted college football efficiency measure” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Texas is a 21.5 point favorite against Florida, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total in 47.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And he set the odds of winning money for Texas at -2500 and for Florida in +1100 to win outright.

If you are using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

If he does, he’ll be in the company of most bettors, who are giving the Gators a chance to stay closer than expected against the Longhorns, based on the latest consensus picks.

Florida is becoming 56 percent betting to win the game outright in the event of an upset or, more likely, to keep the final margin at 3 touchdowns or less in the event of a loss.

The other 44 percent of the bets project that Texas will win the game and cover the large point difference.

Texas enters the game ranked No. 2 nationally with a differential of plus-26.1 points this season, while Florida is only 0.1 points worse than opponents on average.

Those margins have diverged over the last three games, as the Longhorns have averaged 6.3 points better that the competition while the Gators are 2.7 points better on average during that period.

But the Longhorns have been very dominant at home, winning games by an average of 31.2 points this season, compared to the Gators, who are 1 point worse than their opponents when they are visiting.

Texas ranks No. 1 nationally in allowing 0.176 points per play this season, while Florida ranks 46th in FBS with 0.431 points per play medium term.

Playing offense, the Longhorns rank 18th in the FBS with 0.522 points per play while the Gators average 66th nationally in turnovers 0.371 points per play medium term.

Most other analytical models are also taking the Longhorns over the Gators in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas is projected to win the game by a landslide. 90.9 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the confrontation.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the rest. 9.1 percent from sims.

How does that translate into a projected margin of victory in the game?

Texas is expected to be 20.4 points better than Florida in the same field in the current composition of both teams, according to the latest model forecast.

Texas ranks second among SEC teams with a 81.9 percent probability to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

That model projects the Longhorns to win 10.8 games this season.

Florida is a non-factor in the College Football Playoff race this year with a 4-4 record, but it has a chance to contend for a postseason appearance.

The index predicts that the Gators have a total projected win of 5.5 games and a 48 percent chance to be bowl eligible.

When: Saturday, November 9
Time: 12 pm Eastern Time | 11 a.m. central time
Television: ABC network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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