Labor risks losing dozens of seats in the next general election during the “agricultural tax”analysis by Yo has revealed.

A total of 59 of Keir Starmer’s 100 most marginal constituencies, where a swing of less than 5 per cent would be needed for a Labor defeat, are in rural or semi-rural areas and are considered vulnerable due to the government’s decision. Controversial new 20 percent inheritance tax on farms.

The Labor Party also faces losing council seats in next May’s local elections, when England’s 21 county councils – which include swaths of agricultural land – come up for a vote.

While the Conservatives are in power on most of those county councils, the Liberal Democrats are targeting Labor council seats in Shropshire, Oxfordshire and Surrey by campaigning against Rachel Reeves’ decision in her budget last week. Yo can reveal.

“Voters in rural constituencies will want to send a message to the government less than a year after Labor has taken power,” said a Liberal Democrat source.

Sir Ed Davey’s party is confident it can “squeeze the Labor vote” into those three county council areas, the source added.

Of the 59 rural Labor marginals in parliamentary constituencies, 54 are those Starmer’s party won from the Conservatives in July, while three were taken from the SNP in Scotland and two were Labour.

Conservative insiders said that while the party could not plan its general election strategy with more than four years to go until polling day, the “farm tax” would form a key part of its campaign over the coming months under the government. . new leader Kemi Badenoch.

Thirteen of the 59 marginal seats are in places where Labor has a majority of less than 1,000, according to analysis by Yo sample.

The policy threatens not only to upset farmers but also the rural communities they support through employment and indirect benefits.

The most vulnerable is north-west Cambridgeshire, where new MP Sam Carling has a majority of just 39 votes over the Conservatives and where a swing of just 0.04 per cent would be needed to return to Badenoch’s party.

In Peterborough, Labor MP Andrew Pakes has a majority of just 118 votes and needs 0.14 per cent to be defeated.

Luke Myer, in Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, will defend a majority of 214 votes in 2029, with just 0.28 per cent swing to return it to the Conservatives.

In a Commons debate on the government’s change to tax rules for farms on Monday, several Labor MPs with rural constituencies spoke out in favor of farmers, although none of them directly criticized the policy.

Carling asked Environment Minister Daniel Zeichner: “Will you outline what measures are in this Budget to support farmers in north-west Cambridgeshire and help the industry get back on track?”

Zeichner stated that there has been an increase in funding for agriculture and added: “We will look to maintain adequate support in the future because, exactly as has been said, these are long-term businesses and interests.

“The reason they’re long-term is because we’re all going to need to eat.”

Pakes told the Commons that farmers had lived through a “torrid decade” but said opposition MPs were “alarming” about the policy.

He added: “Farmers will rightly be anxious after the experiences they have had in recent years. Will you agree with me that anxiety will only increase with the fear-mongering we are seeing from some people in this house?

Several of the 72 seats won by the Liberal Democrats in the election are in rural areas, including a cluster in the south-west.

Several Liberal Democrat MPs raised concerns about the “farm tax” during Monday’s debate.

“This is definitely an important issue for many of our MPs,” said a Lib Dem source.

Labour’s most marginal seats in rural areas, their majorities and the swing necessary for defeat

North West Cambridgeshire 39 – 0.04% Sam Carling (Tory Labor gain)

Peterborough 118 – 0.14% Andrew Pakes (Tory Labor gain)

Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland 214 – 0.28% Luke Myer (Labor win from Tories)

Forest of Dean 278 – 0.29% Matt Bishop (Tory Labor gain)

Derbyshire Dales 350 – 0.34% John Whitby (Tory Labor gain)

Sittingbourne and Sheppey 355 – 0.43% Kevin McKenna (Tory Labor win)

North Somerset 639 – 0.59% Sadik Al-Hassan (Tory Labor gain)

Aylesbury 630 – 0.63% Laura Kyrke-Smith (Tory Labor gain)

South West Norfolk 630 – 0.71% Terry Jermy (Tory Labor gain)

Ribble Valley 856 – 0.82% Maya Ellis (Tory Labor gain)

Lichfield 810 – 0.82% Dave Robertson (Tory Labor gain)

Redditch 789 – 0.93% Chris Bloore (Tory labor gain)

Pendle and Clitheroe 902 – 0.96% Jonathan Hinder (Tory Labor win)

North West Leicestershire 1,012 – 1.04% Amanda Hack (Tory Labor gain)

South Dorset 1,048 – 1.07% Lloyd Hatton (Tory Labor gain)

Suffolk Coastal 1,070 – 1.08% Jenny Riddell-Carpenter (Tory Labor gain)

Dartford 1,192 – 1.34% Jim Dickson (Tory Labor gain)

Stirling and Strathallan 1,394 – 1.40% Chris Kane (job gain thanks to the SNP)

Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket 1,452 – 1.43% Peter Prinsley (Tory Labor gain)

Clwyd North 1,196 – 1.44% Gill German (Tory Labor gain)

Reading West and Mid Berkshire 1,361 – 1.46% Olivia Bailey (Tory Labor gain)

Rochdale 1,440 – 1.81% Paul Waugh (Workers Party Labor rise / theoretical Labor retention)

North East Hertfordshire 1923 – 1.83% Chris Hinchliff (Tory Labor gain)

Llanelli 1,504 – 1.85% Nia Griffith (job maintenance)

Ashford 1,779 – 1.89% Sojan Joseph (Tory labor gain)

North East Derbyshire 1,753 – 1.91% Louise Jones (Tory Labor gain)

South East Cornwall 1911 – 1.94% Anna Gelderd (Tory Labor gain)

Mid Derbyshire 1,878 – 1.98% Jonathan Davies (Tory Labor gain)

Central and South Pembrokeshire 1878 – 2.01% Henry Tufnell (Tory Labor gain)

Lowestoft 2016 – 2.41% Jess Asato (Tory labor gain)

Chatham and Aylesford 1998 – 2.45% Tristan Osborne (Tory Labor gain)

Burton and Uttoxeter 2,266 – 2.48% Jacob Collier (Tory labor gain)

Buckingham and Bletchley 2,421 – 2.54% Callum Anderson (Labor win from Tories)

St Austell and Newquay 2,470 – 2.64% Noah’s Law (Tory labor gain)

North Warwickshire and Bedworth 2,198 – 2.68% Rachel Taylor (Tory Labor gain)

South Norfolk 2,826 – 2.85% Ben Goldsborough (Tory Labor gain)

Gravesham 2,712 – 3.14% Lauren Sullivan (Tory Labor gain)

Monmouthshire 3,338 – 3.28% Catherine Fookes (Tory Labor gain)

Congleton 3,387 – 3.38% Sarah Russell (Labor win from Tories)

Banbury 3,256 – 3.38% Sean Woodcock (Tory labor gain)

Rochester and Strood 2,930 – 3.44% Lauren Edwards (Tory labor gain)

Hexham 3,713 – 3.58% Joe Morris (Labor win from Tories)

Cannock Chase 3,125 – 3.64% Josh Newbury (Labor win over Tories)

Kettering 3,820 – 3.80% Rosie Wrighting (Tory labor gain)

Worthing West 3,949 – 3.87% Beccy Cooper (Tory Labor gain)

Glenrothes and Mid Fife 2,954 – 4.09% Richard Baker (SNP Labor gain)

Amber Valley 3,554 – 4.18% Linsey Farnsworth (Tory labor gain)

North Ayrshire and Arran 3,551 – 4.20% Irene Campbell (SNP job increase)

Folkestone and Hythe 3,729 – 4.31% Tony Vaughan (Tory Labor gain)

Redcar 3,323 – 4.35% Anna Turley (Tory Labor gain)

Hertford and Stortford 4,748 – 4.40% Joshua Dean (Labor win over Tories)

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr 3,815 – 4.41% Steve Witherden (Tory Labor gain)

Rugby 4,428 – 4.52% John Slinger (Labor win from the Conservatives)

Scunthorpe 3,542 – 4.54% Nic Dakin (Tory Labor win)

South Derbyshire 4,168 – 4.56% Samantha Niblett (Tory Labor gain)

Vale of Glamorgan 4,216 – 4.60% Kanishka Narayan (Tory labor gain)

Isle of Wight West 3,177 – 4.63% Richard Quigley (Tory Labor gain)

Northampton South 4,071 – 4.64% Mike Reader (Tory Labor gain)

Swindon North 4,103 – 4.65% Will Stone (Tory Labor gain)

A Conservative pundit said that if there were an election tomorrow, the party would put the inheritance tax dispute at the center of its campaign strategy.

In his first PMQs as leader on Wednesday, Badenoch said: “I am very clear that we would reverse Labour’s cruel tax on family farms.”

Starmer responded: “When it comes to inheritance, the vast majority of farmers will not be affected, as they (the Conservatives) well know.”

Conservatives have warned that the policy risks not only causing electoral problems but could have a wider impact on food production and security.

There are already reports that some farmers are planning to go on strike by suspending food production in protest of the plans, while there have been warnings that some could be forced to consider suicide.

But there are no signs that the Chancellor and the Prime Minister will budge on that policy.

The Treasury has issued a document attempting to explain the rules, which include ending agricultural property relief for farms worth more than £1m.

He says: “The government is better off targeting these reliefs to make them fairer, protecting small family farms.

“The latest figures show that the top 7% (the largest 117 claims) account for 40% of the total value of agricultural property support. This costs the taxpayer £219 million. The top 2% of claims (37 claims) account for 22% of farm property support, costing £119 million.

“It is not fair that a very small number of applicants each year apply for such a significant amount of aid, when this money could be better used to fund our public services.”

When asked about the pressure on farmers, Downing Street said the Prime Minister “understood the concerns of people in the farming community in relation to the changes being proposed” but insisted that 73 per cent of farmers They will not be affected by the changes. and that the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister’s official spokesperson added: “We have taken a balanced approach in adopting these changes to address the fiscal black hole and put the public services that farmers also depend on on a sustainable footing, while ensuring that we can continue to engage, as I have already said.” say, £5 billion to the agricultural budget over the next two years.”