Former US President Donald Trump made a remarkable comeback on Tuesday, defeating his Democratic rival Kamala Harris in the race for the White House.
“This will be America’s golden age. America has given us an unprecedented mandate,” President-elect Trump said in his victory speech in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Meanwhile, as Trump returns to the Oval Office, India is closely monitoring what Trump’s second term will bring for the country as his administration decisions could influence areas such as trade, financial markets and H-visa policies. 1B.
Below are the different sectors that could see changes under Trump’s leadership:
Trade
The Trump administration would likely implement US-focused trade measures, demanding that India reduce trade restrictions or risk raising tariffs, which would subsequently hit Indian industries, including IT, pharmaceuticals and textiles, which are one of the main exports to the United States.
Trump’s balanced trade agenda could require India to adjust its trade approach, while creating new trade possibilities.
A report by research firm Nomura analyzed the implications of a Trump 2.0 presidency for the US economy, international relations, financial sectors and global dynamics, particularly in Asia. The findings suggested that India could benefit despite Trump’s firm stances on trade and currency.
The report identified two key trade challenges between India and the United States during the Trump presidency. First, India’s trade advantage with the United States could face greater scrutiny. Second, the Trump administration could penalize trading partners suspected of currency manipulation. However, analysis suggests that the US “China plus one” strategy, aimed at diversifying supply chains from China to countries like India, could offset these temporary disruptions.
indian stock market
Financial experts expect that a Trump victory would hit emerging markets, stocks and currencies due to anti-globalization policies.
“If Trump is elected president, it could mean rates, gold prices and a global dollar regime higher than our baseline forecasts, while crude oil prices could be lower. A Harris victory could mean markets could trade more close to our base projections of this case with rates likely to decline and the global USD trading flat,” said ICICI Bank head of economic research Sameer Narang.
Trump’s restrictive trade policies could maintain strong economic growth in the United States, allowing Wall Street to outperform other global markets.
This scenario could trigger a rise in yields, particularly in long-term investments, as investors anticipate greater paper supply.
Furthermore, according to analysts at ICICI Bank, it could lead to a stronger global dollar position, a decline in Brent crude oil prices, a reduction in global base metal prices due to the impact of Chinese growth and lower prices. gold prices due to increased safe haven demand.
H1-B visa rules
There were efforts to limit the H-1B visa program through stricter eligibility requirements and enhanced application reviews during Trump’s first term. Now, potential changes could include increased wage requirements for H-1B visa holders to protect employment opportunities in the United States. Additionally, the program could reduce the number of visas and modify the cap system, giving priority to candidates with advanced qualifications or specialized experience.