It was the Mexican peso that first indicated that Donald Trump was winning
the US elections tonight.

Between 7 and 9 p.m. (New York time), the peso fell 1.4% to $0.0489, its lowest level in the entire election season.

By 10:00 p.m., it had fallen further to $0.0485, a drop of 2.3% over the three hours.

The peso is seen as the simplest “Trump business.” If Trump wins, the Mexican economy will be in serious trouble due to promised tariffs and the global trade war and the promise to force undocumented immigrants back across the southern border.

If Kamala Harris wins, Mexico can expect roughly the status quo.

There are few other factors influencing the peso-US dollar market.

After some gains in recent days, the sudden and very sharp drop in the peso indicated that the currency markets had information that Trump was on the rise.

Likewise, prices in the prediction markets began to move sharply. As of 11:00 p.m. (NYT), “Trump to be President” shares had risen to 0.89 cents on PredictIt, suggesting the market now believes he has an 89% chance of being elected. compared to the price of approximately 50:50 before the polls closed.

The numbers coming out of Pennsylvania, which Harris must win to become president, have begun to confirm market data. With almost 70% of the votes counted, Trump leads 51% to 48%.

Unless those numbers improve tonight or in the coming days, Trump will win.

Unlike him, Harris will have the integrity to compromise, which should help prevent violence in the immediate term.

But the world enters its most dangerous period since World War II, with Trump threatening to abandon Ukraine, withdraw US security in Europe, which will encourage Russia’s Vladimir Putin to expand his ambitions to the West, launch a trade war global and collapse the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Domestically, he promises to increase America’s already unsustainable borrowing, including that of China, to finance more corporate tax cuts. The promised tariffs will not bridge the gap.

The US federal debt, which already exceeds 100% of GDP and is growing at a rate of $2 trillion a year, will increase more rapidly. No one knows how much the United States can borrow before the market begins to doubt the integrity of its bonds, but we may find out soon.

Trump has also vowed to jail his political opponents, and the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that presidents cannot be prosecuted for actions in office.

He made similar threats in 2016 that he didn’t follow through on, but back then his circle included at least a few people who could be trusted to keep his more extreme tendencies in check.

This time there are no people like that around him. Nor is he limited by the need to worry about re-election.

By not being able to run for re-election in 2028, the danger is that he will seek to stay in power by other means.

The United States enters its most dangerous period since 1861.