SEC football begins this weekend when No. 5 Texas returns home against Florida. Let’s look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Texas edged Vanderbilt by three points two weeks ago before the break and wants to start building some momentum in SEC play after the loss to Georgia and as playoff selection approaches.

Florida had Georgia on the ropes for a while last week, tying that game in the fourth quarter before allowing two late touchdowns and fell to 4-4 heading into the second of four games against highly ranked opponents to end the season.

Heading into this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, using key analytics from both teams and picking winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the models are strongly siding with the Longhorns over the Gators.

Texas emerged as the heavy favorite at home, coming out ahead by an overwhelming majority. 90.9 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the game.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the rest. 9.1 percent from sims.

How does that translate into a projected margin of victory in the matchup?

Texas is projected to be 20.4 points better than Florida in the same field in the current composition of both teams, according to the latest model forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Longhorns to cover the spread against the Gators.

That’s because Texas is a 21.5 point favorite against Florida, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And he set the odds of winning money for Texas at -2500 and for Florida in +1160 to win outright.

A slight majority of bettors expect the Gators to keep things closer against the Longhorns, according to the latest consensus picks for the game.

Florida is becoming 53 percent betting to win outright in an upset or to keep the final margin at three touchdowns or less in a loss.

The other 47 percent The bettors expect Texas to win the game and cover the spread.

Texas ranks second among SEC teams with a 78.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

That model gives the Longhorns a total win prediction of 10.8 games this season.

Georgia (92.6%) leads the SEC in terms of odds of making the 12-team playoffs.

Florida is expected to win 5.5 games this season, and has a 48.8 percent chance to be bowl eligible.

College football rankings from the Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule .

Teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (62)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. State of Pennsylvania
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. L.S.U.
15. Texas A&M
16. old miss
17. Iowa State
18. Army
19. Clemson
20. Washington State
21. Colorado
22. Kansas State
23. pittsburgh
24. Vanderbilt
25. louisville

When: Saturday, November 9
Time: 12 pm Eastern Time | 11 a.m. central time
Television: ABC network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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