Mike Wendling
Reporting from Chicago

A new poll of voters in Iowa suggests Kamala Harris will win the state with 47% to Donald Trump’s 44%.

The survey was published by the prestigious pollster Ann Selzer, who periodically conducts surveys to the Des Moines Register newspaper., external

The poll questioned 808 likely voters in Iowa and said Harris’ lead was driven by women and independent voters. But it is still within the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

It is just a survey, so we must be careful when interpreting the results.

“You’ll notice that none of the leading candidates get to 50%, so there’s still a bit of uncertainty about what might actually happen on Tuesday,” Selzer told BBC News in an interview this afternoon.

To put it in context, Trump won Iowa by almost 10 points in each of the last two elections. It is not one of the seven key battleground states – almost no one thought it would be very close.

Iowa itself is not a big prize (only six electoral votes), but demographically it resembles other Midwestern states such as Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Iowa poll will likely be celebrated in the Harris camp, but the Trump campaign is already dismissing it.

When asked about the Selzer poll, Trump campaign spokesman Jason Miller said that every election cycle, there is an “idiot poll.” He referred journalists to a emerson survey, external that puts Trump up 10 percentage points in Iowa.