Big Ten football begins this weekend when defending champion Michigan goes on the road against surprise No. 8 contender Indiana. Let’s look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Indiana is 9-0 for the first time thanks to an offensive renaissance under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, ranking third nationally with an average of 47 points per game this season.

Michigan is not the same offensive juggernaut, ranking 116th nationally in scoring and 128th in passing, falling to 3-3 in Big Ten play and losing three of its last four games.

Heading into this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, using key analytics from both teams and picking winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the Hoosiers have a clear advantage over the Wolverines, according to the models.

Indiana is a big favorite at home, since it wins in the majority 86.9 percent of computer simulations for confrontation.

That leaves Michigan as the presumptive winner in the rest. 13.1 percent from sims.

In total, the Hoosiers come out on top in 17,380 of the index calculations for the game, while the Wolverines lead IU in the other 2,620 predictions.

But those numbers represent a mere calculation of wins and losses for both teams. How do they translate into a projected margin of victory in the game?

Indiana is projected to be 16.8 points better than Michigan on the same field in the current makeup of both teams, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Indiana is a 13.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And lists the odds of winning money for Indiana at -710 and for Michigan in +490 to win outright.

A plurality of bettors expect the Hoosiers to dominate the Wolverines this week, based on the latest consensus picks for the game.

Indiana is getting 66 percent of betting to win the game and cover the generous point spread in the process.

The other 34 percent of the bets expect Michigan to win outright in an upset or keep the margin under 2 touchdowns in a loss.

Indiana is third in the Big Ten with a 86.5 percent probability to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

That model gives the Hoosiers a total win prediction of 11.3 games this season.

Michigan is expected to win 6 games in 2024, according to the index.

That’s enough for a 81.3 percent probability to be eligible for a bowl game this postseason.

College football rankings from the Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule .

Teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (62)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. State of Pennsylvania
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. L.S.U.
15. Texas A&M
16. old miss
17. Iowa State
18. Army
19. Clemson
20. Washington State
21. Colorado
22. Kansas State
23. pittsburgh
24. Vanderbilt
25. louisville

When: Saturday, November 9
Time: 3:30 pm Eastern Time
Television: CBS network

–

Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: 25 best rankings | Schedule | teams

Follow the headquarters of college football: Marker | Classifications | Selections