In an ad by Democrats in the United States in October, an image of left-wing environmental politician Jill Stein transforms into the face of Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump in the blink of an eye.

“A vote for Stein is really a vote for Trump,” says a warning voiceover in the ad, titled “Crucial.” The video continues with Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania this year, saying: “Jill Stein? I like it a lot. Do you know why? “She takes 100 percent from them.”

On October 28, the Democratic National Committee announced that it would spend about $500,000 on a last-minute effort to persuade voters in swing states not to vote for third-party candidates, such as Stein, the Green Party candidate for the presidential elections, and the unaffiliated. candidate, Cornel West.

Both Trump and Democrats have hinted that Stein could affect the vote of Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris, paving the way for a Trump victory.

But what do the polls say? What impact could Stein, a third-party candidate, have on the outcome?

Who is Jill Stein and what are her key positions?

Stein, 74, is the US Green Party candidate for the presidential election. He announced his candidacy via a video message on X on November 9, 2023. He previously ran in the 2012 and 2016 elections.

Born in Chicago and raised in Illinois, Stein graduated from Harvard University in 1973 and Harvard Medical School in 1979. Her campaign website describes her as a practicing physician.

The Green Party is a left-wing federation of green state parties in the US that advocates for environmentalism and social justice.

Their positions on some of the key issues in this election are:

Israel’s war against Gaza

Stein has called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, an end to the blockade of the Palestinian enclave, the provision of humanitarian aid and the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails along with Israeli captives held in Gaza. According to his campaign website, he wants to “stop American support and arms sales to those who violate human rights.” He wants to “end the long-standing American practice of vetoing UN Security Council resolutions to hold Israel accountable under international law.” He also says he wants to dissolve NATO and “replace it with a modern, inclusive security framework that respects the security interests of all nations and peoples.”

Russia-Ukraine War

The Green Party wants to “stop fueling” the war between Russia and Ukraine and work to negotiate a peaceful end.

Climate change

Stein’s party wants to advance the Green New Deal proposal to transition to clean energy and achieve zero emissions. The party says it takes an “ecosocialist approach” to the environment, focusing on and compensating Black, Indigenous and poor people. Stein wants to declare a climate emergency and ensure the release of $650 billion annually to boost renewable energy and clean transportation.

the economy

A Stein administration would seek to create an economy that “works for workers, not just the rich and powerful.” Stein wants to introduce an economic bill of rights, abolishing private schools and guaranteeing free child care and a free, lifelong public education for everyone, from preschool to graduate school. In addition, he wants to cancel the student debt of 43 million people in the United States. He also wants to reduce taxes on incomes below the real median income of $75,000 per household, and raise taxes on “the giant, ultra-rich corporations.”

How is Stein doing in the polls?

Overall, Stein polled around 1 percent nationally, according to the New York Times poll published in the first week of October.

However, discontent is brewing among many Arab-American and Muslim voters toward the two leading candidates – Harris and Trump – due to their unwavering support for Israel in its war in Gaza.

The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), a U.S.-based Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization, revealed Friday that 42.3 percent of Muslim voters prefer Stein, up from 41 percent. of Muslim voters who prefer Harris.

The survey of 1,449 verified Muslim American voters was conducted between Oct. 1 and Oct. 31. It showed that only 9.8 percent of Muslim voters supported Trump.

On February 27 of this year, CAIR estimated that there were about 2.5 million registered Muslim American voters. This represents about 1.6 percent of some 160 million registered voters in the United States.

How are the polls for Stein in the swing states?

Between October 30 and 31, Brazil-based data intelligence and analytics website AtlasIntel surveyed samples of voters in the seven swing states.

• Arizona: 1.1 percent of voters preferred Stein; 50.8 percent preferred Trump; and 45.9 harris
• Georgia: 2 percent for Stein; 48.8 percent for Trump; and 47.2 percent for Harris
• Michigan: 1.7 percent for Stein; 49.2 percent for Trump; and 48.3 percent for Harris
• Snowfall: 1.2 percent of voters chose “Other”; 50.5 percent chose Trump; and 46.9 percent chose Harris; Stein was not on the ballot
• North Carolina: 0.7 percent for Stein; 50.7 percent for Trump; and 46.7 percent for Harris
• Pennsylvania: 1 percent for Stein; 48.5 percent for Trump; and 47.4 percent for Harris
• Wisconsin: 0.8 percent for Stein; 48.5 percent for Trump; and 48.2 percent for Harris

Could Stein change this choice?

Because the margins between Harris and Trump are so close, some experts believe votes for Stein could actually swing the election.

“The vote right now is so close that a small movement in one direction or the other could change it,” Bernard Tamas, a political science professor at Valdosta State University, told The Guardian newspaper.

The Guardian also quoted Nura Sediqe, an assistant professor of American politics at Michigan State University, who said: “Muslims are divided. Not everyone votes for a third party, but let’s imagine that a third does: then you have up to 50,000 votes that had traditionally gone to the Democrats who were leaving. So if the margin is as close as it was last time, it may affect the Democratic Party.”

On Friday, the European Green family, including Green parties across Europe, issued a joint statement calling on Stein to withdraw from the race and endorse Harris. “We are clear that Kamala Harris is the only candidate who can block Donald Trump and his authoritarian and undemocratic policies from the White House,” the statement said.

However, Kyle Kopko, an associate professor of political science at Elizabethtown College in Pennsylvania, told Al Jazeera that while Stein can, in theory, influence the election, in practice it depends on how close the election results are.

It will have to be an “extraordinarily close election” for her to decide the vote, Kopko said.

Have votes shifted to Stein in previous elections?

Stein ran in the 2016 election, winning 132,000 votes in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Together, the three states are worth 44 electoral votes.

In these three states, Democrat Hilary Clinton lost by a combined total of 77,000 votes. Therefore, despite winning the popular vote, Clinton lost the Electoral College vote to Trump, who received 304 votes compared to Clinton’s 227.

The Republican leader defeated Clinton in Michigan with a margin of victory of 0.3 percentage points, in Pennsylvania with a margin of victory of 0.7 points, and in Wisconsin with a margin of victory of 0.7 points. These narrow victories earned him a combined 44 electoral votes from the three states.

In November 2016, an analysis cited by Vox suggested that if all of Stein’s voters had voted for Clinton, she could have won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and thus the election.

However, Kopko said this could be misleading. If Stein had not been on the ballot, it is unlikely that all of Stein’s voters would have voted for Clinton. “Some voters would become disillusioned and not vote at all, or look for another third-party candidate to vote for,” he said.

Have other third-party candidates affected the election results?

In the 2000 US presidential election, Green Party candidates Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke contested the election on the party’s ticket and ended up winning 2.7 percent of the popular vote. Nader made inroads in the swing states of Florida and New Hampshire, and this is believed to have allowed the states to flip from Democratic to Republican.

This fueled speculation that the Green Party candidacy took away Democrat Al Gore’s share of the vote to bolster Republican George Bush’s victory. The Green Party denied this.

Gore won more than half a million votes and conceded only after a month-long legal battle.

The two-party political system has made it difficult for third parties to influence electoral results.

Only four third-party candidates have been able to win Electoral College votes since 1920. They are: Robert La Follette, who won 13 electoral votes in 1924; Strom Thurmond, who won 39 in 1948; George Wallace, who won 45 in 1968; and John Hospers, who won an electoral vote cast by a faithless elector in 1972.