• In a few hours the polls will close in the 2024 presidential elections.
• Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have fought over Pennsylvania, but both candidates have multiple paths.
• This is what we are watching for.

Election Day 2024 It has arrived. Billions have been spent to pressure voters to support specific candidates and causes.

Vice President Kamala Harris rescinded the presidential race with his late entry. Pre-election polls showed his race against former President Donald Trump could be the closest in history. The margins are so close that a possible error in the polls could result in an unexpected explosion.

More than 78 million Americans have already voted early, either in person or by mail. Final turnout may fall slightly from the all-time high set in 2020, but a pre-election Gallup poll showed voters enthusiasm above 2008 levels.

It’s not just about control of the White House. Congress is also at stake. Republicans are the favorites to retake the Senate, thanks to the fact that the key elections are taking place on favorable terrain. The Camera is more difficult to project. Republicans could pick up some seats, or Democrats could flip the chamber with an equally narrow majority. As in 2018, New York and California, not very competitive in the presidential race, are of great importance.

This is what we are seeing.

How Trump or Harris will win the White House

Harris’s easiest path to victory remains what was once President Biden’s last resort: holding the 2nd Congressional District of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska – the the so-called “blue wall” and the “Blue Dot”. Barring any unexpected surprises, Harris would win the Electoral College by 270 to 268.

Trump’s easiest path to victory also passes through Pennsylvania, the most important swing state. Winning Pennsylvania would likely allow Trump to retake the White House by holding North Carolina and pushing back Georgia. In that scenario, he could even take the hit of losing a Nebraska Electoral College vote, something pre-election polls show is highly likely.

While so much attention is deservedly paid to Pennsylvania, Trump devoted a lot of time to the race Last days in North Carolina.even though only two Democrats, Presidents Obama and Carter, have won the Tar Heel State since 1976.

These are the leading counties to watch.

Bucks County, Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro recently called this Philadelphia metropolitan area county “the most dynamic of all the swing counties in the most dynamic of all the swing states.” Hillary Clinton won the Bucks by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2016 and lost both the state and the White House. President Biden won it by just over 17,000 votes four years ago, on track to take his home territory by a margin of about 80,000 votes. If Trump wants to retake Pennsylvania, doing well here is key.

Waukesha County, Wisconsin: This area of ​​suburban Milwaukee County, once a traditional Republican Party stomping ground, has moved closer to Democratic-like suburbs across the country in the Trump era. Trump defeated Clinton here in 2016, but his margin declined by just over 7 points four years later, when he lost the state by a margin of about 21,000 votes to Biden.

Maricopa County, Arizona: In 2020, home to Phoenix, the nation’s fastest-growing county, leaned Democratic by just over 2 points. President Biden won the state by only about 10,000 votes. On the contrary, then-Gov. Doug Ducey, a popular Republican, won the county by nearly 14 points two years earlier.

Here’s what the first exit polls could tell us:

Exit polls will provide the first major information on who turned out to vote early in the evening after the embargo is lifted at 5 p.m. ET, although specific data on who may win in a state is withheld until close the polls in that area.

Although exit polls can offer valuable data, especially on demographics, they are often misleading and do not predict an eventual winner.

Mark Blumenthal, a YouGov contractor and former head of election polling at SurveyMonkey, told Business Insider that he’ll be interested to see how the vote ends up breaking down by gender and race, particularly given speculation that Democrats are losing ground among black and Latino voters. .

In general, however, he cautions against placing too much importance on exit polls on election night. “As a way of trying to see who’s going to win, between the time they start being released, which is usually tomorrow at 5 p.m. Eastern, and when we have a final count, my advice is to ignore them,” Blumenthal said . “Ignore them completely. Go for a walk, take a yoga class, watch something on Netflix, because they are not designed to tell us who the winner of the presidential election will be.”

Republicans are the favorites to regain control of the Senate.

Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to hold on to this vacant Senate seat that her fellow Democrats have held for 20 years. Former Congressman Mike Rogers, once a Trump critic, hopes the former president will take him to the top. Rogers and his allies have focused on Slotkin’s support for White House fuel efficiency standards that do not mandate the production of electric vehicles but would likely result in the auto industry producing more electric vehicles. Pre-election surveys: Slotin is up about 3 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average

Ohio: Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, has managed to survive past challenges in the former swing state that now leans Republican. His rival, Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno, has criticized Brown over the immigration issue. According to AdImpact, the Ohio Senate race is the most expensive non-presidential race in history. Pre-election surveys: Moreno was ahead by less than 1 point, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

Mountain: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester faces an even tougher challenge in Montana, a state Trump won by more than 16 points in 2020. Republicans worked hard to raise Tim Sheehya wealthy aerospace executive, even though expectations of a strong primary were not met. Like other Republican hopefuls, Sheehy has gone to great lengths to link Harris to Tester. Pre-election surveys: Sheehy rose 6.5 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

The house is much closer.

Arizona 1st District: Rep. David SchweikertA Republican, he has represented Scottsdale and the surrounding area in Congress for nearly 14 years. Gov. Katie Hobbs and Sen. Mark Kelly easily won the area, one of the most educated districts still in the hands of a Republican. His rival, former state Rep. Amish Shah, has highlighted his centrist record and hopes Trump’s unpopularity will sink Schweikert.

New York 19: Rep. Marc Molinaro was one of four Republicans who flipped a Democratic-held seat during the 2018 midterm elections in New York, a margin that proved vital for the GOP to retake the chamber. Democrats hope Josh Riley, a lawyer and political analyst, can win in a rematch two years later with the help of Harris at the top of the ticket. More than $35 million has been spent on the race, making it the most expensive House race in the country.

California 22: Rep. David Valadao is one of 18 House Republicans representing a district that President Biden won in 2020. Valadao is also one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the riot. January 6 Capitol. Former state Rep. Rudy Salas is like many Democrats in key races and hopes to win in a rematch after falling short two years ago.