WASHINGTON– voters in nine states They are deciding whether their state constitutions should guarantee abortion rights, weighing ballot measures that are expected to spur turnout in a series of crucial races.

Passage of certain amendments in Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota would likely lead to undoing bans or restrictions that currently block varying levels of abortion access for the more than 7 million women of childbearing age living in those states.

The future legality and availability of abortion depends not only on electoral measures, as policies could change depending on who controls Congress and the presidency. The same goes for state governments, including legislatures that enact new laws, state supreme courts that determine the constitutionality of laws, attorneys general who decide whether to uphold them, and district attorneys who enforce them.

If all the abortion rights measures pass, “it’s a sign of how gigantic support for reproductive rights has become,” said Mary Ziegler, a professor at the University of California, Davis School of Law and an expert on the issue. history of reproductive rights. in the united states

“If some of them fail,” he added, “then we’ll see some conservatives looking for guidance to see what the magic ingredient was that made it possible for the conservatives to stem the tide.”

Abortion rights defenders have prevailed about the seven measures that have appeared since 2022, when the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and ended the national right to abortion. That decision opened the door to bans or restrictions in most GOP-controlled states, and access protections in most Democratic-controlled ones.

Abortion rights campaigns have a great fundraising advantage this year. Their opponents’ efforts focus on presenting the amendments as too extreme rather than presenting abortion as immoral.

Currently, 13 states impose bans on all stages of pregnancy, with some exceptions. Four more ban abortion in most cases after about six weeks of pregnancy, before women realize they are pregnant. Despite the prohibitions, the number of monthly abortions in the United States it has increased slightly due to the increasing use of abortion pills and organized efforts to help women travel for abortions. Still, advocates say the bans have reduced accessespecially for minority and low-income residents of states with bans.

The bans are also part of a key argument in the presidential race. Vice President Kamala Harris He calls them “Trump abortion bans,” and points to former President Donald Trump’s role in overturning Roe v. Wade. Meanwhile, Harris has presented herself as a direct and consistent advocate for reproductive health and rights, including Black maternal health.

Trump has struggled to create a divide between his own base of anti-abortion supporters and the most Americans who support abortion rights, relying on their general response that abortion rights should be left to individual states.

His changing posture in reproductive rights include the promise in October veto a national abortion bana few weeks after the presidential debate when repeatedly rejected say. Trump has also regularly taken credit for appointing three Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade.

Trump’s attempt to find a solution more cautious posture on abortion echoes the efforts of many Republican congressional candidates, as the issue has become a major vulnerability for the Republican Party. In competitive congressional races from coast to coast, Republicans they distanced themselves of more aggressive anti-abortion policies coming from his party and its allies, despite his record on the issue and previous statements opposing abortion rights.

Although the electoral questions have similar objectives, each one responds to its own political circumstances.

There is an additional hurdle to passing protections in reliably Republican Florida: Supporters of the amendment must win at least 60% of the vote.

Passing it there and reversing a six-week ban that went into effect in May would be a blow to Governor Ron DeSantisa Republican with a national profile, who has led republican state funds to the cause and whose administration has also intervened with a campaign against the measure, investigators interrogating people who signed petitions to add him to the ballot and threats to television stations who aired a commercial supporting him.

Nebraska has competing electoral measures. Abortion would be permitted once the pregnancy is advanced. The other would enshrine in the constitution the state’s current law, which prohibits most abortions after 12 weeks, but allow for greater restrictions.

In South Dakota, the measure would allow some regulations related to women’s health after 12 weeks. Because of that problem, most national abortion rights groups do not support it.

In some states, especially Missouri, approved amendments cannot be expanded access immediately. The courts would be asked to overturn the bans; and there could be legal battles about it. Clinics would need to hire staff and obtain licenses. And some restrictions could remain in place.

Arizona, a battleground in the presidential election, prohibits abortion after the first 15 weeks of pregnancy.

The ballot measure there gained momentum after a state Supreme Court ruling in April found that the state could enforce a strict abortion ban adopted in 1864. Some Republican lawmakers joined Democrats. to repeal the law before it could be enforced.

In Democratic-controlled Colorado and Maryland, ballot measures would largely include existing policies in state constitutions, although Colorado’s version could also remove financial barriers to abortion. It would take 55% of the vote to pass there.

Measures maintaining access are also on the ballot in Montana, where a U.S. Senate race could help determine control of the chamber, and in Nevada, a battleground in the presidential election.

In Nevada, where control of state government is divided, the ballot measure would have to pass this year and again in 2026 to take effect.

New York also has a measure on the ballot that supporters say would strengthen abortion rights. He does not contain the word “abortion” but rather prohibits discrimination based on “pregnancy outcomes and reproductive autonomy and health care.”