Let me be clear from the beginning. Wanna Vice President Kamala Harris to win. I’ve spent most of the last two or three months on the ground in state after state, encouraging independents and Republicans to vote for her. I am part of the “Republicans for Harris” effort. And the main reason I want Harris to win is because former president donald trump He is absolutely incapable of holding office. The man who refused to concede the 2020 election, who has indicated that he will refuse to concede this election if he loses, is a danger to this country and should never sit in the Oval Office again.

Harris moving much more toward the center on policy has made my job of getting Republicans to vote for her much easier. But when it comes to the health and viability of these two political parties, I do worry about how each party would be negatively affected if they emerge victorious. Sound confusing? Let me explain to you.

The Democratic Party has real problems that have not been addressed for quite some time, and a Harris victory would be all the excuse party leaders need to continue ignoring these persistent problems. As the Republican Party has become an anti-democratic, authoritarian cult, Democrats have been able to simply point fingers and say, “Look, they’re burning down our house, they’re attacking our democracy, vote for us.” . “We are normal.” And in general it has worked. The perceived threat posed by MAGA Republicans has led Democrats to better-than-expected results in 2018, 2020 and 2022, and may lead them to victory again on Tuesday.

But that victory might not be a great thing for the Democratic Party’s long-term prospects. Democrats have lost touch with working-class Americans, regardless of race. They have become the party of the rich and educated elites. This is anecdotal, obviously, but if I had a dollar for every conversation I’ve had over the last five or six years with a normal working-class man or woman who told me some variation of: “Joe, I know Trump is “A moron, I know MAGA can be a little crazy, but Democrats are elitists who don’t understand me and look down on me.” He would be a rich guy.

The Democratic Party has leaned left, increasingly driven by “woke” social issues that give primacy to identity, while being dismissive of issues that concern working-class voters of all races and ethnicities, such as crime, inflation and the border. This condescension toward so many voters who cannot relate to coastal elites in academia and the media provided the opportunity Trump needed eight years ago. He spoke directly to these people. Sure, Trump is a demagogue and he lies to these people and tries to scare them, but the perception they have is that, unlike the Democrats, at least Trump is listening to them.

A victory for Harris would be a victory for the country and could simply be the final curtain on Trump’s improbable and historically destructive political career. But it would also give Democrats all the excuse they need to avoid any meaningful soul-searching about why this race was so close.

Think about it this way: Would Harris win on Tuesday if the Republican nominee was anyone but Donald Trump? If Harris loses, the party would have no choice but to look inward and wonder how this man could have beaten its candidate in two of the last three elections. Finally there would be a real, honest and difficult assessment of the party’s problems. It would be painful and take a few years. But at least it would happen. And it could help the party correct its course.

Evaluating a Trump victory for the Republican Party is much simpler. My biggest concern for the Republican Party is that a Trump victory will be the absolute end of my former party. MAGA, Trump, and Trumpism will have been fully validated and there will be no turning back to a party of liberty, free markets, free trade, and limited government. The MAGA party, an authoritarian, big-government, intolerant and hyper-nationalist party, is here to stay. All young Republican candidates will embrace this MAGA ideology. If Trump wins, the Republican Party will be MAGA forever.

Yes, our country comes first. Our democracy comes first. That’s why Trump must lose and Harris must win. But our two main political parties have major problems. If Harris wins, the Democratic Party’s problems will likely get worse. If Trump wins, the Republican Party will lose forever to MAGA, leaving America without a true conservative party, only a liberal party and an authoritarian cult of personality.