DES MOINES– Vice President Kamala Harris has 47% to former President Donald Trump’s 44% among likely voters in the Des Moines Register and Mediacom’s final pre-Election Day Iowa poll. That margin falls within the poll’s 3.4-point margin of sampling error and suggests there is no clear leader in the state, which has been widely rated as strong in the GOP column during this year’s campaign.

The findings suggest a shift toward Harris compared to the previous Iowa poll, in September, which found a narrow lead for Trump. In that poll, 47% of likely voters backed Trump and 43% backed Harris.

So far, there have been few high-quality surveys in Iowa with which to compare these findings. Iowa has a mixed record in the last four presidential elections, beating Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, while Trump won them in 2016 and again in 2020.

The new poll finds that women in the state largely favor Harris over Trump, 56% to 36%, while men support Trump by a narrower margin, 52% to 38%. And the state’s independents have chosen to support Harris, 46% to 39%; have favored Trump in Iowa polls released earlier this year.

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The poll also suggests that older voters are firmly in Harris’ camp, with 55% of likely voters age 65 and older backing her versus 36% backing Trump, while likely voters under 35 years are divided approximately equally: 46% Harris and 44% Trump.

More than 9 in 10 likely Iowa voters say they have already made up their minds in the new poll (91%), 7% say they could be persuaded and 2% say they have not yet chosen a candidate.

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll was conducted Oct. 28-31 by Selzer & Co. among 808 likely Iowa voters. Interviews were conducted by telephone. The results among likely voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 points.

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