WASHINGTON, DC (NBC) – NBC News’ latest national poll on the 2024 presidential campaign finds what remains a close race, defined by conflicting forces that have helped both Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in their search for the White House.

• Boosting Harris: growing Democratic enthusiasm, a 20-point lead over Trump on the abortion issue and an advantage for Harris on which candidate looks after the middle class best.
• Helping Trump: two-thirds of voters who believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, a favorable assessment of Trump’s presidency (especially compared to President Joe Biden’s current performance), and Trump’s double-digit lead on the economy and the cost of living.

What also defines this close race is the intense polarization in this country, including more than 30 point gender gap in the voting preferences of men and women, as well as the 60% of voters who believe the country will remain divided, regardless of who wins the presidential race.

And what also stands out in the survey is how little has changed in the race since last month, despite the frenetic campaign activity in recent weeks and despite billions of dollars in ads.

“This is very stable data from where we were in October,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

“We’ve grown further apart and picked our corner,” McInturff added. “Each side is as blocked as possible and does not give or move.”

Overall, the poll shows Harris getting the support of 49% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump gets an identical 49%. Only 2% of voters say they are undecided.

This has essentially not changed since NBC News poll in Octoberwhen the two candidates were tied with 48% each.

(Read more here from NBC News pollsters about why this poll measures registered voters and unlikely voters..)

In an expanded vote that includes third-party candidates, Trump has 47% and Harris 46%, with a combined 7% backing other candidates or being undecided (again, unchanged from October).

Since close elections are often decided by which party turns out best for its voters, the NBC News poll also provides a snapshot of what could happen depending on different turnout scenarios.

Some more Favorable environment for Republicans, meaning higher turnout among men, white voters, and voters without college degrees by a few percentage points. — Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 50%-48%.

but in a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats, meaning a slight increase in women, white voters with college degrees, and voters of color going to the polls – these poll results show Harris leading Trump by 3 points, 50%-47%.

All of these results are within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

However, due to the country’s Electoral College system, the presidential race will ultimately be decided by what happens in key states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And the latest polls from those states also find very narrow margins.

A gender gap of 34 points

At 49%-49%, the NBC News poll results are as close as possible. But there are still huge differences in support for candidates between different groups.

Poll finds Harris has her biggest leads over Trump among black voters (87%-9%), younger voters ages 18 to 29 (57% to 41%), and white voters with college degrees (55% to 43%).

Meanwhile, Trump leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%), and whites without a college degree (64%-34%).

However, what continues to stand out as one of the defining features of the election is the enormous gender gap between Harris and Trump: women support Harris by a 16-point margin (57%-41%) and men support Trump by 18 points. (58%-40%).

This net gender gap of 34 points is larger than the 30-point gap shown in the October survey.

Meanwhile, Harris has an 8-point lead among independent voters, 51% to 43%. However, he is ahead by just 9 points among Latino voters, 53% to 44%, although the sample size here is small and the margin of error is considerably larger compared to the overall poll.

Harris leads on abortion and the middle class; Trump is ahead on cost of living and border

On presidential issues and characteristics, Harris maintains a significant lead on the issue of abortion, leading Trump by 20 points on which candidate handles the issue better.

Harris is also ahead of Trump by 9 points, 51% to 42%, on which candidate cares better about the middle class.

By contrast, Trump has a double-digit lead over which candidate handles the economy better (51% to 41%) and addresses the cost of living (52% to 40%). It also maintains its 25-point lead on border security and immigration control.

But voters are essentially divided over which candidate best represents change (46% choose Harris, 41% choose Trump), and they are divided over who is competent and effective (47% say Trump and 45% say than Harris).

That’s a slight change from October, when 48% of voters said Harris was competent and effective, compared to 43% for Trump.

Biden continues to be a liability for Democrats

The NBC News poll shows that 41% of registered voters approve of President Joe Biden’s job, compared to 58% who say they disapprove.

That figure is slightly lower than the 43% who approved of his position in October.

By comparison, when voters were asked to evaluate Trump’s time in office, 48% approved of the former president’s job, compared to 51% who disapproved, identical to what the poll found last month.

And when asked which worries them more (Harris continuing with the same approach as Biden or Trump continuing with the same approach from his first term as president), 41% of voters say they are more worried about Harris continuing Biden’s path, compared to the 40% who are most concerned. worried that Trump will repeat the actions of his administration.

An additional 14% of voters say neither is a cause for concern.

54% say they have already voted.

The survey, which was available through Saturday night, also finds that 54% of registered voters say they have already voted, plus another 11% who say they plan to vote early.

Among this combined 65% of early voters, Harris leads Trump by 7 points in the head-to-head race, 53% to 46%. This is a significant change from the final NBC News poll of 2020, when Biden was ahead of Trump by more than 20 points among these voters.

Among the 33% of voters who say they will wait until Election Day, Trump has a 16-point lead, 56% to 40%. It’s Trump 56%, Harris 40%.

That compares to the nearly 30 points Trump scored among Election Day voters four years ago.

60% believe that the nation will remain divided

Regardless of who wins the presidential race, 60% of registered voters in the survey say the United States will remain divided, compared to 28% who think it will be more united.

Other survey findings

Harris and Trump have almost identical popularity scores: 43% of voters view Harris positively and 50% view her negatively (net rating of -7). This compares to Trump’s score of 42% positive and 51% negative (-9).

And when it comes to the battle for Congress, 47% of voters say they prefer Democrats to control Congress, while 46% want Republicans to be in charge. The two parties were tied on this issue last month, with 47% each.

The NBC News poll was conducted Oct. 30 to Nov. 2 among 1,000 registered voters (most of whom were contacted by cell phone) and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Feel more informed, prepared and connected with WIS. For more free content like this, subscribe to our email newsletterand download our applications. Do you have comments that can help us improve? Click here.

Copyright 2024 WIS. All rights reserved.