Yiwu, China, has the world’s largest wholesale market, where business is booming as merchants look for cheap products to stock their shelves. However, political analysts are also closely monitoring a phenomenon they refer to as the “Yiwu Index.” According to the notion, a united states presidential The candidates’ chances of winning the upcoming elections increase with the successful sales of their replica items in Yiwu.

Interestingly, the ‘Yiwu Index’ predicted donald trump victory in 2016 more accurately than pollsters who were confident that Hillary Clinton would win the election.

Beijing is presumably applying the theory as it watches the 2024 elections, which will be held on November 5, the Daily Mail reported.

What is the Yiwu index?

Political campaigns have always relied heavily on merchandise. While candidates often use their official attire to raise money, foreign retailers have flooded the market with copies of candidate merchandise, taking advantage of the growing division in American politics.

Yiwu is known for offering early warnings about the upcoming presidential election based on the type of products it sells. However, the market is not perfect and there are flaws in relying on the index to try to forecast the outcome.

First of all, the market depends mainly on wholesale trade and almost never sells products directly to customers.

Retailers can typically place bulk orders for specific products during this purchasing period in anticipation of an increase in demand.

Trump supporters are much more likely to display, wear, and purchase products that reflect their political affiliations than supporters of the vice president. Kamala Harris or any other candidate.

Despite Triumph Goods made in China outsold products bearing Joe Biden’s name in 2020, even though the latter declared victory.

Yiwu prediction for the 2024 US elections

Ahead of the 2024 US elections, the Yiwu market saw a sharp increase in demand for Harris-Walz camouflage campaign caps, which is a good sign for Democrats.

According to The Telegraph, the first batch was completely sold out within 30 minutes of going on sale.

However, Zoe Liu Zongyuan of the Council on Foreign Relations, a US-based research institution, warned the outlet that the classification may not be accurate.

Making a comparison between someone who has a Triumph For Harris’ neighbor, Zongyuan said Trump voters are more likely to show off their MAGA stuff.

“Democrats, people who vote independently or undecided voters are less likely to spend money to buy those things. “So I would say that because the behavior of voters has changed, the way they show their enthusiasm has changed, the Yiwu Index may no longer be an accurate indicator.”

According to Yiwu’s theory, Trump’s higher sales than his competitors may be a sign of early voter turnout.

“When everyone was saying that Democrat Hilary Clinton was going to win (in 2016), the index suggested otherwise,” Zongyuan said, noting that Americans, diplomats and rally-goers are the ones who buy these products, not them. Chinese.