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Three reasons why the Packers will beat the Lions

Sakege November 3, 2024

GREEN BAY, Wisconsin – The Green Bay Packers are 2.5 Point Losers on FanDuel Sportsbook for Sunday’s NFC North matchup against the Detroit Lions.

How rare is that? This will be the 50th home game coached by Matt LaFleur. They have been a loser seven times, including last year’s 34-20 loss to the Lions.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will beat the Lions this time.

1. Josh Jacobs

There’s a reason Jacobs hasn’t gotten many touches in some games. It’s so he can be at his best in games like this.

Whether it’s Jordan Love or Malik Willis at quarterback, the offense should start with Jacobs. Jacobs led the way in the Week 2 win over the Colts, when Willis started, and last week at Jacksonville, when Willis played most of the second half.

Detroit’s run defense is its only weakness. Well, weakness may be a strong word, but the Lions are 22nd with 4.66 yards allowed per carry this season and 19th. expected points adjusted to the schedule. They have given up more than 130 rushing yards in three of their last four games.

Fixing it was a priority this week.

“Yeah, it’s something we took note of,” Lions coach Dan Campbell told reporters before Wednesday’s practice. “We have to be able to attack the perimeter, set edges and let our backers flow and make plays. We’ll prepare (at practice on Thursday), we’ll bring it and that’s the best way.

“Do you want to get better at it, do you want to work on it? You have to work on it at full speed, like in a game situation and get some live reps. So we’re going to continue to do that because we know that teams will continue to attack us that way.”

Jacobs leads the NFL in carries and touches and is fourth in rushing yards. Of 44 running backs with at least 50 carries, Jacobs is eighth with 3.52 yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus, and 10th in missed tackle percentage, according to Sports Info Solutions.

Detroit’s defense ranks 27th in missed tackle percentage, according to PFF.

“Very physical. They fly as a unit,” Jacobs said. “They have a lot of guys who have played a lot of high-level football. It will be one of those games. It will be a playoff type game. We’ll see. We will see how it goes.”

Jacobs has broken 31 tackles this season, according to PFF, compared to 28 all of last year. His yards after contact are the best mark of his career.

It’s not just Jacobs. Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn had to deal with the Packers’ rushing attacks led by Aaron Jones. Jacobs has brought a new dimension to Green Bay’s offense, Glenn said.

“There’s something about acquiring a backup that has balls on the wall and changing the mentality,” Glenn told reporters Thursday. “Seeing how it is in the NFL and how violent and physical the running back is, you know your offensive line is hoping to block that guy. There is a change in how they are operating in terms of violence and the physical nature of the game because of who they have running the ball.

“So, it’s going to be a challenge for us and we have to do everything we can to make sure we stop it because if you let that happen, it’s not good for a defense to allow a team to run the ball and then be able to have the passes. of action that they have with these receivers that they have. So we have to do a good job in that aspect.”

2. Jayden Reed

One of those receivers is Jayden Reed, who has become the Packers’ biggest threat. “This guy is a playmaking guy,” Campbell said. Reed leads teams with 31 receptions, 507 yards and a 16.4-yard average.

According to PFF, 65 receivers were targeted at least 30 times. Reed ranks second with 8.5 yards after the sack and is tied for 15th with six missed tackles. His 15 explosive plays (runs and receptions) are just three behind Derrick Henry’s league-leading total.

What’s noteworthy for this game is that Reed has done most of his damage in the slot, where he is eighth with 21 receptions, second with 381 yards, second with 18.1 yards per catch, tied for fourth with three touchdowns, sixth with 8.2 YAC per sack and second with a 142.0 passer rating when targeted.

The Lions are vulnerable at the position with Amik Robertson. Of 28 defensive backs who have played at least 100 slot coverage snaps, he has allowed the fifth-most yards, the third-most yards per play and a passer rating of 101.1, according to PFF.

Fantasy football isn’t real football, but the Lions have allowed the most fantasy football points to go to receivers. according to Razzball.

In the second round of the 2023 draft, the Lions traded with the Packers to get safety Brian Branch. The Packers traded up one more time before drafting Reed.

“I think the vision was what you see now with the way he’s playing,” Campbell said. “This is what you knew; He was competitive, explosive, he had speed. … Can spot it, sticky hands, feisty blocker, competitive. Man, he’ll get after you in the run game. And he is a very, very intelligent player. “He’s getting better and he continues to get better and to me, he’s a strength and we’re going to have to be ready for him and the other receivers.”

3. Takeaways

The Packers are 6-2 in large part thanks to Jeff Hafley’s defense, which is number one with 19 takeaways, number one with nine fumble recoveries and number two with 10 interceptions.

Detroit, on the other hand, ranks second in turnover margin at +10. Only three teams have fewer concessions than Detroit’s five. The Lions have lost just one fumble and Jared Goff hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 3.

The Packers have what they call a “ball rally” to highlight the importance of taking care of the football. The Lions put a similar emphasis. So much so that a member of the Titans staff tried to get the secrets to success from Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson after Detroit won the turnover battle 4-0 last week.

“It’s a constant insistence as coaches,” Johnson told reporters Thursday. “It gets stale, it gets redundant, but at some point, I think these guys hear it in the back of their minds when they carry the ball down the field.

“We have a quarterback right now who is playing very smart, solid football. He’s taking care of the ball. If you present it to him downfield, he will throw it; He has no problem pulling out a dagger or throwing a pole into the field. But the teams we keep seeing get all this depth, you’ll see. So, he’s being very smart and deliberate with how he attacks coverages right now. So, that’s keeping the ball out of harm’s way from an interception standpoint.”

Goff is playing at the highest level imaginable, but he has been sacked eight times in the last two games and has turned the ball over four times. So there could be opportunities for the kind of Edgerrin Cooper-style sack/strip that marked last week’s win in Jacksonville.

“I think it starts from the front, like any game,” Hafley said. “If you can’t stop the race, it’s going to be a long day. Their offensive line is probably the best we’ve seen, and then they have two really good running backs. So we really have to defend the race. They are explosive, powerful and their offensive line is really good.

“They built it the right way. They’ve built it from the inside out, but it has to start with the race. Obviously, they have good wide receivers, they have a really good tight end and the quarterback is as efficient right now as any quarterback in the NFL. I think they are training very well. I think their entire staff does a great job with their scheme and what they’ve done with the quarterback this year as far as their efficiency has been very impressive.”

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