If, as I fear, Donald Trump wins this week, future historians will mark November 5, 2024 as one of the turning points of the 21st century. We have become so jaded and cynical of the overblown campaign rhetoric that proclaims every election “the most important election of our lives” that, like the fable of the boy who cried wolf, we dismiss every alarm as alarmist. Our senses become so dulled by the incessant hype that when the real threat arrives, we are slow to recognize it.

The word “fascist” is often an insulting term that comes easily from the lips of excitable, rat-shaking college students. Surprisingly, it is now the considered judgment of Trump from respectable senior generals such as former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley and Trump’s former Chief of Staff John Kelly. Never before had a major party’s presidential candidate failed to secure the endorsement of a single previous candidate from the same party. Even Dick Cheney – who, as George W. Bush’s vice president, was considered by the left to be such an evil figure that he was caricatured as a James Bond villain – has endorsed Kamala Harris.

Never before have so many conservatives sounded so many alarms about a Republican candidate. The warnings from sober people like Milley and Kelly – not political figures but military officers trained in an ethic of service – cannot be dismissed as hysterical campaign hype. Only a fool – or a Fox News propagandist – would dismiss them.

Ironically, though, this is part of Trump’s almost hypnotic appeal to his base. The more often he is denounced by respectable conservatives or members of the national security establishment, the more convincing his stance as a champion of the alienated becomes. In a nation where suspicion of the government runs deep, Trump’s narrative – that he, like his followers, are victims of the “deep state” – resonates. Far from being a conservative, Trump is a radical, a disruptor. Its appeal not only works with those who feel marginalized by economic and social change, but also reaches billionaire “tech bros” like Elon Musk, who also see themselves as disruptors.

Whether Trump is accurately described as a fascist or not, he certainly is as a demagogue. And if the history of the last century has taught us anything, it is surely to take demagogues seriously. They generally mean what they say. The great paradox of this election is that a notorious and systematic liar can probably be trusted to keep his promises.

Charging

So we now have a pretty good idea of ​​what a second Trump presidency would look like. On the first day he would leave Ukraine; He has practically already said it. One of the most notable moments of the campaign was when, during his debate with Kamala Harris, he was asked who he wanted to win the war. Not once, but twice, he ostensibly refused to say so. He has repeatedly said he would end the war in his first 24 hours in office.

There is only one way to achieve this: to stop American military support and force Volodymyr Zelensky to participate in a negotiation in which Russia would hold all the cards. And thus the most serious violation of international law since the Second World War would be validated, the aggressor would be rewarded and Zelensky – whom less than three years ago the world compared in a not implausible way to Winston Churchill – would be thrown to the wolves.

The message to other dictators could not be clearer: under Trump, the United States will not defend its allies. Does anyone seriously believe that Putin wouldn’t interpret abandoning Ukraine as a green light to push for Russia’s other territorial goals in the surrounding states to the south and west? Does anyone seriously believe that Xi Jinping wouldn’t read the same signs and come to the same conclusion about his own claims on Taiwan?