The stars seem to align for the vice presidency Kamala Harris to win Tuesday’s presidential election over former president donald trumpwho has squandered a huge summer advantage as it melts in the last days alienating women, Latinos and other electoral blocs.

in the final New York Times/Siena College PollHarris has small but consistent leads in swing states, including places where Trump had hoped to win, such as North Carolina and Georgia. According to the Times, Pennsylvania and Michigan are tied, but Harris has been winning those states in other polls.

“…if the race swung toward Ms. Harris, it wouldn’t be hard to explain. The news of the past two weeks hasn’t been good for Mr. Trump, according to his former chief of staff John Kelly. saying that he meets the definition of a fascist to a speaker at Trump’s Madison Square Garden event vocation Puerto Rico is a ‘garbage island,’” the Times reported.

On Saturday, an earthquake shook Trump’s campaign when the Final Des Moines Register Survey showed Harris with a three-point lead, 47-44%, in Iowa, a deep red state. The Times began surveying voters on October 24, three days before Trump’s election. Hate-filled rally at Madison Square Garden. The Des Moines Register survey was conducted entirely after that event.

Trump handily won Iowa in 2016 and 2020. Even a small Trump victory in Iowa likely portends disaster elsewhere on the electoral map.

Key takeaways from the Des Moines Register poll: Independent women back Harris by a 28-point margin, 57% to 29%; women 65 and older support it by a margin of more than 2 to 1, 63% to 28%; and while 97% of Democrats support Harris, only 89% of Republicans support Trump.

Despite all the lamentations about Harris’s supposedly leaked support from the black and Hispanic communities, she led black voters, 84 percent to 11 percent, down 80-14 in the latest wave of state polls in the Times/Siena. He led among Hispanic voters, 56-35, to 55-41.

Additionally, late-breaking voters have leaned toward Harris, 55-44%.

Here’s a look at the swing states in the Times poll:

Snowfall: Harris +3 (49-46)

North Carolina: Harris +2 (48-46)

Wisconsin: Harris +2 (49-47)

Georgia: Harris +1 (48-47)

Pennsylvania: Tie (48-48)

Michigan: Tie (47-47)

Arizona: Triumph +4 (49-45)

ABC News also published your final poll on Sunday morningand reported a relatively stable career, leaning toward Harris:

Harris has 49% support among likely voters in this ABC News/Ipsos poll from last weekend, and Trump has 46%. Reflecting the country’s locked-in polarization, support for these candidates has not changed significantly since Harris took office to replace Joe Biden last summer.

Harris scored +2 in early October, +4 (a slight lead) last week and +3 in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with field work Ipsos. That slim three-point gap with Trump matches the average gap between Democrats and Republicans in the last eight presidential elections, of which Democrats won the popular vote in seven. In any case, the result leaves the field open to the whims of the Electoral College.

Former Republican campaign strategist Matthew Dowd went deeper: “The latest ABC News poll has Harris up nationally +3, and even better is the internal data. Harris is only losing white women by 4, a group Biden lost by 11 in 2020. And Harris is only losing white men by 11, a group Biden lost by 23 in 2020.”

Dowd raised this question to unsuspecting Trump supporters: “A question for all the MAGA Einsteins still predicting a landslide victory over Trump: If he’s so far ahead, why is he (down) 3 in Iowa, only 5 up in Kansas, only 3 up in Ohio, and only 3 above in Ohio? Down 12 in Nebraska 2?