For months, officials at the highest level of the European Union We have been quietly preparing for what to do if donald trump Wins a second term in the White House.

The work has been overseen by Bjoern Seibert, who wields enormous power in Brussels as Ursula von der LeyenTrump’s closest adviser at the top of the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, which proposes laws and leads trade policy.

Officials have been drawing up contingency plans for how the EU could respond to the measures Trump has promised if he returns to power. He republican party The candidate has talked about imposing tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all products imported into the United States, affecting trade with allies and economic rivals alike.

As the EU’s largest trading partner, such a dramatic shift to introduce blanket tariffs on European exports would likely be hugely damaging.

In anticipation of that, EU officials are analyzing possible tariffs the bloc could impose on imports from the US. The idea is to be prepared to respond quickly and forcefully, in the hope of bringing the Trump administration to the negotiating table soon and avoiding a trade war. “It’s so we don’t get left behind if Trump wins and announces something,” says a source close to Von der Leyen.

In recent weeks, Seibert has briefed ambassadors of EU states on the commission’s thinking, but the granular details have been kept secret.

During his first White House residency, Trump imposed high tariffs on EU steel and aluminum imports in 2018, prompting retaliatory measures from Brussels and leading to a much more adversarial transatlantic relationship.

( “By the way, NATO is dead”: if Trump wins, Europe will be left aloneOpens in a new window )

It was not until late 2021 that both sides suspended steel and other tariffs, as part of a reset under joe bidenThe presidency. Those tariffs have not been removed entirely, but rather suspended until March 2025, so it remains a question mark over what will happen even if Democratic vice president Kamala Harris win on Tuesday.

A spokesperson for the commission says it is preparing for all possible outcomes. “We are committed to maintaining a close partnership with the United States and engage with American interlocutors and stakeholders on a bipartisan basis. “The United States and the EU are and will remain close partners and allies.”

Plans being drawn up by senior EU officials also include assessments of how a second Trump presidency could affect European defense policy. The great concerns that exist for the war in ukraine and the NATO western military alliance.

During the election campaign, Trump has claimed that he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine in one day and bring both sides to the negotiating table. kyiv supporters worry that Trump could threaten to stop the huge flow of military aid to Ukraine, which, along with support from European allies, has sustained it on the battlefield since Russia’s full-scale invasion of early 2022.

Trump has also been very public about his long-standing grievances with NATO, arguing that other members of the alliance contribute too little when it comes to defense spending. The EU would face the prospect of having to plug a gaping financial hole if Trump were to halt US support for Ukraine or withdraw its commitments to NATO.

Guntram Wolff, a member of economic think tank Bruegel, said such a scenario would also require Europe to seriously increase its own production of weapons and military equipment. “We’re not really prepared… We’re in for tough times if he’s elected,” he says.

Wolff, who is also an economics professor at the Free University of Brussels, says the fact that the EU still depends on the United States for its security would weaken its position in any confrontation over trade and tariffs.

Politically, the EU has not been able to make the big decisions necessary to be able to stand on its own, he maintains. “Majorities are very fragile everywhere, from France to Germany, so people are simply hoping for the best rather than preparing for the worst,” he says.

( The European Union prepares a two-step trade plan to confront Donald TrumpOpens in a new window )

A Commission official says it helps that von der Leyen has five years under her belt in the EU’s top job. The fact that German politics has consolidated its power from its second term could prove useful if the EU needs to cope with a Trump presidency, they say.

“We’ve been here before; “It’s not our first rodeo,” says Daniel Mulhall, who was Ireland’s ambassador to the United States from 2017 to 2022. “It was difficult for the European Union, but it wasn’t a disaster.”

The former diplomat says much would depend on how different a second Trump term would be from his first, given that some barriers within the US administration previously limited his push. “Last time, the people around him were able to talk him out of it,” Mulhall says.

After that chaotic first term, it took a while for relations between the United States and Europe to become friendly again.

A “trade and technology council,” which brings together politicians and officials from both sides every few months, was an effort to build bridges under Biden. At the forum’s last meeting earlier this year in Leuven, Belgium, the atmosphere during a roundtable discussion was friendly.

US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Trade Envoy Katherine Tai were joined on stage by three EU High Commissioners: Margrethe Vestager, Thierry Breton and Valdis Dombrovskis. Both sides talked about how far they felt they had come in building personal relationships with each other. Despite the laughter on stage, there was still a clear sense that the United States and the EU remained apart in some important areas, particularly in policies related to state subsidies and technology regulation.

Some EU officials believe that the trade council has begun to veer into “talks” territory, rather than a space where political compromises can be reached between the two sides. Others say that puts too many expectations on the meetings to be anything more than what was intended. “There have been really strong interactions at the top political level. That doesn’t mean they agree on everything,” a US industry source says of the meetings.

The friendly banter probably won’t last if the United States and the EU find themselves closing trade bridges and leveling reciprocal tariffs on goods they sell to each other within months.

If Trump emerges the winner after Tuesday, the question of what that means for Europe will dominate the discussion when the EU’s 27 leaders meet for a summit in Budapest later this week.

The European Council meeting was due to discuss what the EU could do to become more economically competitive, to avoid falling further behind the United States and China. National leaders’ answer to that question will be all the more urgent if the EU faces another four years of Trump in the White House.

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