Like Ukraine and Georgia, the former Soviet republic aspires to join the European Union, but is caught in a constant geopolitical tug-of-war between Moscow and the West.

“Russian propaganda is a reality of 30 years of independence,” added Ticu, who has written several books on the history of his country.

In a national referendum on October 20, Moldovans voted by a narrow majority of 50.35% in favor of securing a path to EU membership. But the result was overshadowed by accusations of a Moscow-backed vote-buying scheme.

In the presidential elections held on the same day, the pro-Western incumbent President Maia Sandu received 42% of the vote, but failed to obtain an absolute majority. On Sunday he will face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a Russia-friendly former attorney general, in a runoff seen as a choice between geopolitical opposites… again.

As in the EU referendum, a poll published this week by research firm iData indicates a close race on Sunday that is leaning towards a narrow victory for Sandu, an outcome that could depend on Moldova’s large diaspora.

The presidential role carries significant powers in areas such as foreign policy and national security.

In the wake of the two October votes, Moldovan authorities said that Ilan Shor, an exiled oligarch who currently lives in Russia and was convicted in absentia in 2023 of fraud and money laundering, orchestrated a vote-buying scheme. Prosecutors say $39 million was paid to more than 130,000 recipients through an internationally sanctioned Russian bank between September and October. Shor denies any wrongdoing.

“These people who go to Moscow, the so-called government in exile of Ilan Shor, who come with large sums of money, remain free,” said Ticu, who ran as a candidate with little chance in the presidential race.

It was “obvious,” Ticu added, that the votes “would not be fair or democratic.” Of the 11 candidates in the first round, he was the only one to support Sandu in the second round.

Voters in Transnistria, Moldova’s breakaway region that is friendly to the Kremlin and declared independence after a brief war in the early 1990s, can cast their ballots in Moldova itself. Transnistria has been a source of tension during the war in neighboring Ukraine, especially because it hosts a military base with 1,500 Russian soldiers.

Ticu warned that if Russian troops in Ukraine reach the port city of Odessa, they could “join the Transnistria region, and then the Republic of Moldova will be occupied.”

In Gagauzia, an autonomous part of Moldova where only 5% voted in favor of the EU, a doctor was detained after allegedly forcing 25 residents of a nursing home to vote for a candidate they did not choose. Police said they obtained “conclusive evidence,” including financial transfers from the same sanctioned Russian bank.

Anti-corruption authorities have carried out hundreds of searches and seized more than $2.7 million (€2.5 million) in cash as they seek to crack down.

On Thursday, prosecutors raided the headquarters of a political party and said 12 people were suspected of paying voters to select a candidate in the presidential race. A criminal case was also opened in which 40 employees of state agencies were suspected of accepting electoral bribes.

Instead of gaining the overwhelming support Sandu had hoped for, the results in both elections exposed Moldova’s judiciary as unable to adequately protect the democratic process. It also allowed some pro-Moscow opposition to question the validity of the votes.

Igor Dodon, leader of the Party of Socialists and former president who has close ties to Russia, said this week that “we do not recognize” the referendum result and called Sandu “a dictator in a skirt” who “will do whatever is necessary.” . remain in power.”

Sandu admitted that ballots suffered from unprecedented fraud and foreign meddling, which undermined the results, calling the interference a “vile attack” on Moldova’s sovereignty.

“If the judiciary does not wake up… if it closes its eyes to the sale of the country, the future of Moldova will be in danger for decades,” he warned.

Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe and has been hit hard by inflation since the war began. Tatiana Cojocari, a Russian foreign policy expert at the Chisinau-based think tank WatchDog, says this means many citizens could “fall prey to electoral corruption” for relatively small amounts of money.

“It is very important for Russia to have as many resources as possible to work with. It creates chaos, both informationally and politically,” Cojocari said, adding that Russia “has resorted a little to Cold War tactics and uses them skillfully, only now adapted to social networks.”

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moldova applied to join the EU. It was granted candidate status in June of that year and, in the summer of 2024, Brussels agreed to start negotiations for its accession. The sharp turn toward the West irritated Moscow and significantly soured relations with Chisinau.

Since then, Moldovan authorities have repeatedly accused Russia of waging a vast “hybrid war,” from extensive disinformation campaigns to protests by pro-Russian parties and vote-buying schemes that undermine elections across the country. Russia has denied it is meddling.

Social media platforms have played a crucial role in the spread of Russian propaganda in Moldova, says Andrei Rusu, media monitoring expert at WatchDog. “One of the biggest lies is that if Moldovans join the EU, they will go to war with Russia, lose their faith and traditional values, or be forced to follow LGBT propaganda,” he said.

Moldovans who lived in the Soviet Union, he added, may have difficulty detecting Russian propaganda about the EU and the West, and differentiating between real videos and those generated by artificial intelligence, such as those that have frequently appeared online depicting Sandu. .

In recent weeks, Meta and Telegram removed multiple fake accounts that were critical of the EU and Sandu, and that expressed support for pro-Russian parties.

However, Moldova watchers warn that Moscow’s main target could be parliamentary elections in 2025. Waning support for the ruling pro-Western Action and Solidarity Party suggests it could lose its majority in the 101-seat legislature.

“We are already waiting for the parliamentary elections to see other tactics and strategies,” added Cojocari, the Russia analyst. “This government will no longer be able to… secure a parliamentary majority.”

Back at the boxing gym, Ticu warned that more must be done to counter foreign interference or face the “danger of hybrid governance” with pro-Russian forces.

“Very good laws have been adopted, but they are not applied,” he said. Russian President Vladimir “Putin does not want a war in Moldova, he wants to show the world and Europe a case in which European integration policies have failed.”