The game of the week finds No. 4 Ohio State visiting Happy Valley in a marquee clash against No. 3 Penn State in college football Week 10 action on Saturday. Here’s what you should keep in mind, along with our updated prediction for the game.

“Everything” may not be on the line for Ohio State here, but with a loss already in the books, their Big Ten and playoff hopes would take a serious hit with another road loss against a highly ranked conference opponent.

Penn State has more room to maneuver, coming in as one of the few remaining undefeated teams in college football and working behind another strong defense and home-field advantage as head coach James Franklin looks to finally overcome the Buckeyes, and really the any team in the top five. .

What can we expect when the Nittany Lions host the Buckeyes in this Big Ten clash?

Here’s what to watch out for as Ohio State and Penn State meet in this Week 10 college football rivalry game, with our updated prediction of what will happen.

1. Battle on the line. All eyes are on the Buckeyes’ blind side after star left tackle Josh Simmons missed the year with an injury, and then his replacement, Zen Michalski, had a problem of his own.

The line was an issue in a narrow win against a Nebraska defense that allowed 56 points to Indiana the week before, and that resulted in the Buckeyes’ lowest offensive production of the season, especially on the ground.

Now that unit faces a Penn State front seven that is among the most physical and aggressive in the country, racking up 46 negative snaps, averaging 2 sacks per game and allowing 93 rushing yards per game.

2. On the ground. Ohio State is No. 2 nationally in total defense and No. 6 against the run, allowing just 5 touchdowns and just 2.84 yards per carry against opposing running backs, and now lines up against Penn State’s dynamic duo in the backfield.

Kaytron Allen has 509 rushing yards this season and Nicholas Singleton had 493 more for an offense that ranks 28th in FBS with 5.13 yards per carry and 13 total touchdowns.

3. Injury surveillance. Drew Allar leads the Big Ten in yards and touchdowns the last 2 years, but the quarterback’s initial 20-game streak is an open question after he was injured last week at Wisconsin. Signs point to his play, but any limitations on his part could derail Penn State’s offensive effort.

But even if he took the field, the Nittany Lions could still use backup Beau Pribula, who helped win last week’s game with a touchdown and is a credible running threat in his own right and adds a dose of unpredictability, which can put a real spark on offense if things slow down.

Most analytical models are giving the Buckeyes an edge over the Nittany Lions in this one.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

How does that model predict events in Happy Valley this weekend?

The state of Ohio came out ahead with a majority 60.9 percent of computer simulations for the game, while Penn State emerged as the presumptive winner in the other 39.1 percent from sims.

And when it comes to margin of victory? Expect a close game, but one that covers the difference.

Ohio State is projected to be 4 points better than Penn State in the same field in computer simulations, according to the model’s latest forecast.

The state of Ohio has been 28.4 points better than their opponents on average so far this season when taking into account their scoring margins in wins and losses.

Penn State has been 19 points better than its competition on average in 2024.

However, over the last three games, those numbers have gotten much closer.

The state of Ohio is 10.3 points better than its opponents during that time, while Penn State has averaged 11.3 points better than the other team in that period.

Penn State has dominated at home, averaging 23.3 more points than the competition when played within the confines of Beaver Stadium.

The state of Ohio has been 16 points better on a rough average when playing road games, although those results are skewed, beating Michigan State by 31 and losing to Oregon by 1.

The state of Ohio is a 3.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total in 47.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And he set the money-making odds for Ohio State at -150 and for Penn State in +125 to win outright.

This is starting to look all too familiar for Penn State. Four times in the last seven years the Nittany Lions have been undefeated before the Buckeyes handed them that first crushing loss.

But while Happy Valley hopes James Franklin turns into Jim Harbaugh and finally breaks that curse with a small winning streak, this matchup still suggests otherwise.

Penn State’s defensive production is admirable, but let’s consider the competition. He has yet to face an offense that ranks in the top 30 nationally, and has lined up against only one in the top 50 throwing the ball, and that was against a USC team that led by two touchdowns at one point before Tyler Warren almost single-handedly led that comeback. .

And he hasn’t faced a defense of Ohio State’s caliber, not to mention a rotation of top-line players on offense that will stretch the Nittany Lions’ secondary lineup early and often.

There is a stark skill gap between the type of receiver speed the Buckeyes can put on the field, especially when combined with a 1-2 punch in the backfield that averages 5.44 yards per carry with TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins balancing the things.

But expect this to be a game heading into the fourth quarter, when Penn State’s attackers push Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard in the pocket and force him to make some hurried throws before his guys can get open.

Howard has some strategic mobility that can help him lengthen those plays when the pressure is on, but he doesn’t have the kind of speed that can easily outrun the Nittany Lions’ pursuers on a consistent basis, especially with that glaring issue at left tackle. still to be resolved.

That keeps this game close the entire game, but eventually the dam breaks, and Ohio State not only has the bodies in front to force Allar (if he plays, and he’s always struggled under pressure) into making some mistakes of his own, but also speed to take advantage of this defense when necessary.

College football headquarters elects…

More… Ohio State vs. Ohio Score Prediction Penn State by expert model

When: Saturday, November 2
Time: 12 pm Eastern Time
Television: Fox network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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