Today marks the start of the final month of hurricane season and, historically, tropical activity suffers a dramatic drop in terms of storm production. The typical average is only one named storm every two seasons, with a storm reaching hurricane status once every two to three years. But keep in mind that high-impact tropical storms and hurricanes develop during November.

In fact, there is currently a broad area of ​​low pressure that is trying to slowly develop in the western Caribbean, where sea surface temperatures are still significantly high. The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm by the end of the weekend or early next week.

“Favorable convection conditions and wind patterns are likely to persist for another 10 to 14 days,” said Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist and research scientist at Colorado State University. “Vertical wind shear should remain fairly low and a continued very warm Caribbean would favor an active end to the season.”

It is one of three disturbances that meteorologists are watching in the Atlantic Ocean. The other two have a 10 percent chance of growth right now.

It’s still too early, but the potential system in the western Caribbean may move northward and penetrate the southern edge of the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures have cooled recently. It will depend on how strongly the high pressure system, parked over the southeastern part of the US, interacts with the developing trough to see exactly where this system is headed, but the environment is certainly favoring development. Any storm that forms could impact the Gulf Coast late next week.

The general reason for the increase in activity is largely due to the divergence of upper-level winds. This promotes updrafts from the lower surface, pulling in warmer air that can help fuel thunderstorms.

Only three hurricanes have been recorded making landfall on the Gulf Coast during November (since 1850).

November typically only accounts for about 10 percent of tropical storm activity in an average season. There were no named storms last year during November, but there were three the year before and each became hurricanes: Lisa, Martin and Nicole. Hurricane Nicole was actually the last hurricane to make landfall that November, hitting north of Miami near Vero Beach on November 10, 2022.

“Remember, the weather is calming down this time of year, so the word “busy” means something different in November than it does in September,” Klotzbach said.

The greatest tropical activity in the month of November occurs in the western Caribbean where the current disturbance is located. Other areas that tend to attract interest are the western Atlantic off the Carolina coast and the central Atlantic.

The strongest November hurricane on record was Lenny in 1999, reaching winds of 155 miles per hour as it moved unusually eastward across the Caribbean and struck the northern Leeward Islands.

Warmer than average sea surface temperatures remain, primarily due to increasing climate change, and will increase the tropical threat in some locations through November and possibly later into the season into December. This elevated heat may end up adding one or two more named storms to the list, especially if wind shear remains as relaxed as it appears over the next two weeks.

Below you can see where the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season stands in terms of named storms and hurricanes, days of active systems, and accumulated cyclone energy, known as ACE, which measures the intensity of a hurricane season based on total measurements of the wind speed of each storm, combined during each of its lifetimes. The season-to-date average value is in parentheses below.

Most meteorologists will consider this hurricane season “supercharged,” with eight named storms forming between September 24 and October 19, the most on record during that period. And there were also three hurricanes active at the same time in the Atlantic during October for the first time (since records began being kept in the 1850s).

Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.