There are some knowns and many unknowns in the shocks that could distort October payroll numbers.

What is known: What is known: Striking aerospace machinists and hotel workers are expected to reduce October’s employment count. in more than 40,000 jobsaccording to the The latest BLS strike report. In October, there were 41,400 new workers on strike (most at Boeing), in addition to an ongoing strike by video game voice actors.

On October 11, Boeing, which has most of the workers on strike, announced plans to cut its workforce by 10%, or 17,000 jobs. Based solely on the timing of that announcement, none of those cuts will detract from the October jobs count.

What is unknown: Companies do not operate in a vacuum, so if operations slow down or stop without their workers, that will be transmitted to other companies.

The Boeing strike, for example, has potentially led to 5,000 to 7,000 layoffs at non-Boeing companies in Washington and Oregon, but it’s difficult to know the full extent, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, told CNN.

The biggest unknown will be the impact of the hurricanes. The last time there were back-to-back major hurricanes (Harvey and Irma in 2017), the forecast for next month’s jobs report was for a loss of 33,000 jobs.

That September 2017 reading was later revised upward once more information became available. In addition to the direct and devastating impacts that keep people out of work, weather events also impact the BLS’s ability to collect data from businesses and households.

“In a hurricane, the top priority is not to send your numbers to the BLS,” Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, told CNN in an interview. “Estimates in a natural disaster tend to become more imprecise.”