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    • Harris leads Trump in Michigan by 3 points: Free Press poll
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    Harris leads Trump in Michigan by 3 points: Free Press poll

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    A final Free Press poll of likely Michigan voters ahead of Tuesday’s election showed Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris with a 3 percentage point lead over Republican former President Donald Trump, boosted by growing support among women and Black voters. , but still within the more or less of the survey. Margin of error of 4 points.

    On the heels of a state survey conducted by USA TODAY and Suffolk University which showed Trump ahead by just four-tenths of a percentage point, The new poll means that Michigan, a key battleground state in the last two presidential elections and the site of dozens of visits by both campaigns this year, remains a volatile state.

    The poll, conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing for the Free Press and its media partners, showed Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, leading Trump by 48% to 45%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Natural Law Party candidate who dropped out of the race but remains on the ballot, each garnered 3% support, and independent Cornel West garnered 1%.

    The number of undecided voters in the poll, which polled 600 likely voters between last Thursday and Monday, was so small that it represented less than 1%, something EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn said he is not sure about. arrest. seen before. “It’s an unusual choice,” he said.

    While the poll was good news for Harris: her level of support in the EPIC-MRA polls rose 3 percentage points from where it was in August, and Trump’s fell 1 point and it was him first time that Democrats took advantage in the presidential race according to the company’s surveys since last November, it came with some caveats.

    The percentage of voters with a favorable opinion of her was slightly lower than those with a favorable opinion of Trump, 45% compared to his 47%, for example. The percentage of her supporters who considered themselves highly motivated to vote for her was strong, at 78%, but still slightly behind that of Trump supporters, at 84%.

    Then there’s the fact that Trump is considered to have topped the polls in Michigan in 2016, when he won the state, and in 2020, when he lost it, and could do so again if he rallied his base.

    But there were also strong signs that as the election approached, Harris’ message has resonated and that the level of support for Trump may have plateaued.

    His support among black voters, a key constituency in Michigan, rose 18 points since August, and the poll showed him leading Trump among that bloc by 87% to 5%. much closer to the level of support Biden received in 2020. Among white voters, he fell behind Trump, who was 50% to his 44%, but that 4-point margin was closer than the 55%-44% lead Trump had over Democratic President Joe Biden in Michigan among white voters in 2020, according to the outlet. center.

    Your guide to the 2024 elections: Detroit Free Press Voter Guide

    And while she still lagged among men, at 42% to Trump’s 48%, her support among women grew 5 points since August, surpassing the former president among that typically larger voting bloc, 53%-42%.

    “(Support from) black men may no longer be an issue (for Harris) with what (former President Barack) Obama has done and (former first lady) Michelle Obama “He has,” Porn said, referring to the pair’s recent campaign visits to the state. “I was hoping she would have room to grow with the black vote.”

    If elected, Harris, a former U.S. senator and California attorney general, would be the first woman, the first Black woman and the first woman of South Asian descent to be president of the United States. Trump, a former television host, real estate magnate and businessman, is seeking to become the first former president re-elected since Grover Cleveland in 1892.

    Harris became the Democratic nominee this summer after Biden, harassed by questions about his age and low poll numbersshe abandoned the race but quickly consolidated the Party behind her.

    play

    What is Donald Trump’s favorite car? A Cadillac, like his father.

    Donald Trump and his father Fred Trump share a taste for cars, Trump shared during his town hall in Warren, Michigan, on September 27, 2024.

    Support for Kennedy and Stein seems to be having an effect

    In taking a narrow lead in this latest poll, Harris likely had some help from the fact that Kennedy’s name remains on the ballot even though she dropped out.

    Among self-described Republicans, 5% said they were still voting for Kennedy, as did 6% of the 11% of voters who described themselves as independents. On Tuesday, The US Supreme Court rejected Kennedy’s request to be removed from the polls in Michigan and Wisconsin after leaving school after the deadline to do so.

    But there also appeared to be a third-party threat to Harris’ chances from Stein, the Green Party candidate. who has embraced the “Leave Harris” movement that works to attract voters in Michigan’s large Arab American and Muslim communities seeking to punish Harris and the Biden administration for failing to demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and implement an Israeli arms embargo.

    When asked what the most determining issue of the election was for them, 75% of Stein supporters said foreign policy, an indication that the conflict in Gaza was a motivating factor given that only 5% of Respondents generally mentioned foreign policy as such an important issue. priority.

    Stein did not have anywhere near the level of support among self-identified Democrats (1%) that Kennedy had among Republicans, and Harris’ level of support among Democrats was 95% to Trump’s 3%. (Among Republicans, Trump led Harris 89% to 4%). But Stein had a significantly higher level of support, with 13% of self-described independents, a potentially important group of undecided voters among whom Harris had a 4-point lead over Trump. , 40%-36%.

    eight years ago, Stein got about 1% of the vote in Michigan.or about 51,000 votes in a race that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton lost to Trump by 10,704 votes.

    A split over which candidate is best able to address the issues

    When asked what issue motivated them most to vote, 30% overall cited inflation and the cost of living, an issue that Trump and Republicans have been beating Democrats since inflation. – which has declined over the past year – took off during and immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic around the world. Among Trump supporters, 47% said it was their biggest motivating factor.

    But Harris, who has countered the issue by saying he will fight price gouging and that his rival’s plans to impose much higher import tariffs will drive up consumer prices rather than lower them and create jobs as he claims, appears to have convinced some voters. It can be relied on to fight inflation. The poll showed that 45% of respondents overall believed she is better positioned to address the issue compared to 49% who say Trump is.

    On issues, 18% of respondents said abortion was their top issue, a key issue for Harris and second only to inflation, and 32% of her supporters said it motivated their vote; Another 12% selected immigration, a key issue for Trump, as their main concern. who has criticized an increase in encounters with undocumented immigrants along the southern border before the recent crackdown, and 25% of his supporters said it was the driving force behind their vote for him. Another 10% said their main issue was the fitness of either candidate for office, and that motivated 16% of Harris voters (who presumably don’t think Trump is fit to be president, but she does) to 4% of Trump voters (who don’t believe Harris is fit for the job, but she is).

    However, there were some wide differences in terms of who voters thought would be best able to handle some issues.

    Trump, for example, earned much higher marks for being better able to end the war in Ukraine (53%-39%), secure the southern border (59%-36%), and end hostilities in the Middle East. (48%-36%). ). Harris was seen as best positioned to protect abortion rights (64%-23%) and protect Medicare and Social Security benefits (52%-39%).

    How everyone is doing in different regions, among different groups

    Among different age groups in Michigan, the poll indicated that Harris is doing better among voters ages 18-34 (50% to Trump’s 39%) and voters ages 65 and older (58%-38% ), while he leads among those between 35 and 49 years old. (48%-40%) and 50-64 (51%-45%). In each of those age groups, Harris has seen some improvement over the past two months.

    Trump still maintains a sizable lead, 51%-42%, among voters who didn’t go to college; among those who did, Harris’ lead is larger, 54%-39%. (A word of caution about all of these subgroups, however: since they involve smaller numbers of voters than the full sample of 600, the margins of error for each would be larger, and in some cases considerably larger, than plus or minus 4 percentage points. )

    In the Detroit metropolitan area, which EPIC-MRA defines as Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties and is the state’s largest voting area, Harris had a substantial 54%-38% lead, much better than the margin of 46%-43% I had. in August. She trailed in most other parts of the state except the outer metro region, which includes the outer suburbs of Detroit and Washtenaw County, home to Ann Arbor, where she led 58% to 40%.

    In central, western and northern Michigan, as well as the area around Bay City and Thumb, Trump led between 6 points (51%-45% in central Michigan) and 28 points (60%-32%, around of Saginaw Bay). ).

    Finally, the poll indicated that Harris has a 64%-35% lead over Trump among the 31% of voters who said they had already voted absentee or at the polls using early in-person voting. Among absentee voters overall, Harris had a lead of 66% to 31%, while Trump led 52% to 38% among those who planned to vote at the polls, suggesting that, as we saw in 2020, it is very possible that the former president has a lead, and possibly a considerable one, in the early statewide vote count that the absentee vote, as counted, could be reduced by hours or even days.

    Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.

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